Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 292.92% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $798.17 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $22.40 (2.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.78% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of REGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 28, 2026
End date: September 9, 2026
a = 5.1895
b = 0.0037
s = 0.0402
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0037) – 1
= 292.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0402) – 1
= 17.45%
May 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y215)
= Exp(a + b × X215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 311 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1895 + 0.0037 × 311 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(6.4360)
= $623.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y215)
= Exp(a + b × X215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 311 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1895 + 0.0037 × 311 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(6.2751)
= $531.18
September 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 415 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1895 + 0.0037 × 415 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(6.8259)
= $921.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 415 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1895 + 0.0037 × 415 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(6.6650)
= $784.47
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 292.92% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $798.17 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $22.40 (2.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 7.5162
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0202
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0202) – 1
= 8.42%
August 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5162 + -0.0020 × 394 + 2 × 0.0202)
= Exp(6.7692)
= $870.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5162 + -0.0020 × 394 – 2 × 0.0202)
= Exp(6.6883)
= $802.99
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5162 + -0.0020 × 427 + 2 × 0.0202)
= Exp(6.7032)
= $815.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5162 + -0.0020 × 427 – 2 × 0.0202)
= Exp(6.6224)
= $751.75
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.78% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.