Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 220.76% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $902.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.73 (0.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.04% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $58.74 (6.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of REGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 18, 2026
End date: September 10, 2026
a = 5.3987
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0492
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 220.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0492) – 1
= 21.74%
May 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y208)
= Exp(a + b × X208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3987 + 0.0032 × 301 + 2 × 0.0492)
= Exp(6.4582)
= $637.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y208)
= Exp(a + b × X208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3987 + 0.0032 × 301 – 2 × 0.0492)
= Exp(6.2615)
= $524.00
September 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 416 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3987 + 0.0032 × 416 + 2 × 0.0492)
= Exp(6.8254)
= $920.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 416 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3987 + 0.0032 × 416 – 2 × 0.0492)
= Exp(6.6287)
= $756.50
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 220.76% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $902.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.73 (0.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 6.7557
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0386
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0386) – 1
= 16.67%
July 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y258)
= Exp(a + b × X258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 374 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7557 + -0.0002 × 374 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(6.7580)
= $860.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y258)
= Exp(a + b × X258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 374 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7557 + -0.0002 × 374 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(6.6037)
= $737.85
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 465 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7557 + -0.0002 × 465 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(6.7397)
= $845.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 465 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7557 + -0.0002 × 465 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(6.5855)
= $724.54
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.04% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $58.74 (6.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.