Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.79% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of March 28, 2024 was $962.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 91.10% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of March 28, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $25.58 (2.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of REGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2020
End date: December 27, 2023
a = 6.0866
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0930
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0930) – 1
= 45.06%
March 2, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y232)
= Exp(a + b × X232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0866 + 0.0004 × 339 + 2 × 0.0930)
= Exp(6.3925)
= $597.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y232)
= Exp(a + b × X232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0866 + 0.0004 × 339 – 2 × 0.0930)
= Exp(6.0206)
= $411.81
December 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0866 + 0.0004 × 1,734 + 2 × 0.0930)
= Exp(6.8863)
= $978.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0866 + 0.0004 × 1,734 – 2 × 0.0930)
= Exp(6.5143)
= $674.71
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.79% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of March 28, 2024 was $962.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 19, 2023
End date: March 8, 2024
a = 3.6998
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0220
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 91.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0220) – 1
= 9.18%
October 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6998 + 0.0018 × 1,665 + 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(6.6980)
= $810.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6998 + 0.0018 × 1,665 – 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(6.6101)
= $742.55
March 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6998 + 0.0018 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(6.9481)
= $1,041.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6998 + 0.0018 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(6.8603)
= $953.62
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 91.10% per annum.
- REGN price at the close of March 28, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $25.58 (2.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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