Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 529.68% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $460.28 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.49 (0.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 401.06% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 3.7850
b = 0.0050
s = 0.0122
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0050) – 1
= 529.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0122) – 1
= 5.00%
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7850 + 0.0050 × 437 + 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(6.0124)
= $408.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7850 + 0.0050 × 437 – 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(5.9637)
= $389.03
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y325)
= Exp(a + b × X325 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7850 + 0.0050 × 470 + 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(6.1788)
= $482.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y325)
= Exp(a + b × X325 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7850 + 0.0050 × 470 – 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(6.1300)
= $459.44
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 529.68% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $460.28 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.49 (0.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 14, 2026
End date: November 5, 2026
a = 4.0727
b = 0.0044
s = 0.0137
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0044) – 1
= 401.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0137) – 1
= 5.65%
October 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0727 + 0.0044 × 449 + 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(6.0826)
= $438.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0727 + 0.0044 × 449 – 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(6.0277)
= $414.75
November 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y326)
= Exp(a + b × X326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0727 + 0.0044 × 471 + 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(6.1798)
= $482.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y326)
= Exp(a + b × X326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0727 + 0.0044 × 471 – 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(6.1248)
= $457.06
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 401.06% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.