Stock Analysis on Net

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.73% per annum.
  • AMGN price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $286.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.84 (4.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.06% per annum.
  • AMGN price at the close of March 27, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.34 (1.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: February 12, 2024

a = 3.5676

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0397

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0397) – 1
= 17.21%

May 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,031)
= Exp(a + b × X1,031 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,496 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5676 + 0.0012 × 1,496 + 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(5.4626)
= $235.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,031)
= Exp(a + b × X1,031 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,496 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5676 + 0.0012 × 1,496 – 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(5.3038)
= $201.09

February 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5676 + 0.0012 × 1,782 + 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(5.8097)
= $333.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5676 + 0.0012 × 1,782 – 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(5.6509)
= $284.53

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.73% per annum.
  • AMGN price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $286.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.84 (4.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 8, 2024
End date: March 22, 2024

a = 9.5878

b = -0.0022

s = 0.0276

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.06%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0276) – 1
= 11.69%

January 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5878 + -0.0022 × 1,747 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.8149)
= $335.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5878 + -0.0022 × 1,747 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.7043)
= $300.17

March 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5878 + -0.0022 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.6527)
= $285.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5878 + -0.0022 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.5422)
= $255.24

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.06% per annum.
  • AMGN price at the close of March 27, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.34 (1.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
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