Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 104.64% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $410.95 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.26 (1.55%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 490.51% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 1, 2026
End date: August 7, 2026
a = 5.0229
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0212
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 104.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0212) – 1
= 8.86%
May 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y261)
= Exp(a + b × X261 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0229 + 0.0020 × 380 + 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(5.8108)
= $333.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y261)
= Exp(a + b × X261 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0229 + 0.0020 × 380 – 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(5.7260)
= $306.74
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 478 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0229 + 0.0020 × 478 + 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(6.0031)
= $404.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 478 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0229 + 0.0020 × 478 – 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(5.9183)
= $371.76
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 104.64% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $410.95 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.26 (1.55%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 13, 2026
End date: August 7, 2026
a = 3.6716
b = 0.0049
s = 0.0177
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0049) – 1
= 490.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0177) – 1
= 7.34%
July 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y309)
= Exp(a + b × X309 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 453 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6716 + 0.0049 × 453 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(5.9110)
= $369.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y309)
= Exp(a + b × X309 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 453 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6716 + 0.0049 × 453 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(5.8402)
= $343.84
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 478 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6716 + 0.0049 × 478 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(6.0326)
= $416.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 478 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6716 + 0.0049 × 478 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(5.9618)
= $388.32
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 490.51% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.