Stock Analysis on Net

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN)

$24.99

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

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Economic Profit

Amgen Inc., economic profit calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2024 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


The analysis of the financial data over the five-year period reveals several notable trends and shifts in key performance indicators.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
NOPAT shows fluctuating performance throughout the period. Starting at $7,889 million in 2020, it decreased significantly to $6,412 million in 2021, and remained almost flat in 2022 at $6,399 million. There was a subsequent recovery to $7,802 million in 2023, followed by a steep decline to $5,377 million in 2024. This inconsistency indicates challenges in maintaining steady profitability after taxes over the period.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital remained relatively stable, with minor fluctuations between 8.41% and 8.79%. The highest cost was observed in 2022 at 8.79%, and the lowest in 2023 at 8.41%. These subtle changes suggest a relatively consistent risk and financing environment across the years.
Invested Capital
Invested capital experienced a general upward trend with significant growth in 2023. It rose from $38,776 million in 2020 to $40,247 million in 2021, followed by a slight decrease to $39,722 million in 2022. In 2023, invested capital sharply increased to $69,976 million, before decreasing to $63,169 million in 2024. The substantial increase in 2023 could indicate sizable investments or asset acquisitions during that year, with some reversal or divestment in 2024.
Economic Profit
Economic profit exhibits a declining trend over the period. Starting at $4,505 million in 2020, it dropped steadily through 2021 and 2022 to $2,937 million and $2,905 million respectively. The decline continued in 2023 to $1,919 million and culminated in a negative economic profit of -$39 million in 2024. This suggests that by 2024, the company’s returns were barely covering its cost of capital, ultimately indicating value destruction.

Overall, the data reflects a period of volatility and pressure on profitability. While invested capital increased significantly, especially in 2023, the corresponding economic profit declined, culminating in a negative outcome by 2024. The stability in the cost of capital contrasts with the fluctuations in profit metrics, highlighting potential issues in operational efficiency or market conditions impacting returns.


Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Amgen Inc., NOPAT calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net income
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowance for doubtful accounts2
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents3
Interest expense, net
Interest expense, operating lease liability4
Adjusted interest expense, net
Tax benefit of interest expense, net5
Adjusted interest expense, net, after taxes6
(Gain) loss on marketable securities
Investment income, before taxes
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income7
Investment income, after taxes8
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for doubtful accounts.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income.

4 2024 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

5 2024 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense, net = Adjusted interest expense, net × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

6 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income.

7 2024 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

8 Elimination of after taxes investment income.


Net Income
The net income experienced a decline from 7,264 million US dollars in 2020 to 5,893 million US dollars in 2021, representing a notable decrease. It then rebounded moderately to 6,552 million US dollars in 2022, followed by a slight increase to 6,717 million US dollars in 2023. However, net income dropped considerably to 4,090 million US dollars in 2024, the lowest level during the observed period.
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
NOPAT showed a decreasing trend from 7,889 million US dollars in 2020 to 6,412 million US dollars in 2021. It remained relatively stable in 2022 at 6,399 million US dollars, then rose significantly to 7,802 million US dollars in 2023, reaching the highest point in the series. In 2024, NOPAT dropped sharply to 5,377 million US dollars, marking a substantial decline compared to the previous year.
Overall Trends and Insights
Both net income and NOPAT exhibited volatility throughout the five-year period. After declines in 2021, both metrics partially recovered in 2022 and 2023 before falling steeply in 2024. The divergence between net income and NOPAT in certain years is moderate, with both generally following similar downward and upward moves. The steep drops in 2024 for both indicators may suggest operational or external challenges impacting profitability during that year.

Cash Operating Taxes

Amgen Inc., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Provision for income taxes
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense, net
Less: Tax imposed on investment income
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).


Provision for Income Taxes
The provision for income taxes initially decreased from 869 million USD in 2020 to 808 million USD in 2021, followed by a further slight decline to 794 million USD in 2022. However, there was a noticeable increase in 2023, reaching 1,138 million USD, before dropping significantly to 519 million USD in 2024. This pattern indicates some volatility, with a peak in 2023 before a steep reduction in the latest year.
Cash Operating Taxes
Cash operating taxes showed a consistent upward trend from 1,493 million USD in 2020 to 1,497 million USD in 2021, then sharply increased to 2,368 million USD in 2022 and further to 2,963 million USD in 2023. However, in 2024, the amount fell to 2,426 million USD, indicating a partial decline after a period of substantial growth. Overall, cash operating taxes more than doubled over the five-year period despite the slight drop in the final year.
General Insights
The data reveals a divergence between provision for income taxes and cash operating taxes. While provision for income taxes fluctuated with a peak in 2023 and a marked decline in 2024, cash operating taxes demonstrated a generally strong upward trajectory with a moderate pullback towards the end. This could suggest variations in tax management strategies, timing differences, or changes in taxable income and cash tax payments over the periods analyzed.

Invested Capital

Amgen Inc., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Current portion of long-term debt
Long-term debt, excluding current portion
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Stockholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowance for doubtful accounts3
Equity equivalents4
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax5
Adjusted stockholders’ equity
Construction in progress6
Marketable securities7
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of equity equivalents to stockholders’ equity.

5 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

6 Subtraction of construction in progress.

7 Subtraction of marketable securities.


Total reported debt & leases
The total reported debt and leases show a general upward trend from 2020 to 2024. Beginning at 33,445 million USD in 2020, the figure rises slightly to 33,979 million USD in 2021, followed by a more pronounced increase to 39,640 million USD in 2022. A significant surge occurs in 2023, reaching 65,423 million USD, before slightly declining to 60,879 million USD in 2024. This pattern indicates increased leverage, particularly in 2023, potentially reflecting elevated borrowing or lease obligations during that period.
Stockholders’ equity
Stockholders’ equity demonstrates a declining trend over the analyzed years. Starting at 9,409 million USD in 2020, equity decreases sharply to 6,700 million USD in 2021 and continues downward to 3,661 million USD in 2022. A recovery is observed in 2023 with equity rising to 6,232 million USD, followed by a slight decrease to 5,877 million USD in 2024. Overall, the substantial reduction early in the period suggests diminished net assets, while the partial rebound in 2023 may indicate some restoration of equity value.
Invested capital
Invested capital remains relatively stable from 2020 through 2022, starting at 38,776 million USD in 2020, increasing slightly to 40,247 million USD in 2021, then marginally decreasing to 39,722 million USD in 2022. A significant increase occurs in 2023, with invested capital reaching 69,976 million USD, before declining to 63,169 million USD in 2024. This growth in 2023 aligns with the increase in reported debt and leases, suggesting substantial capital investment or acquisition activities funded by increased liabilities.

Cost of Capital

Amgen Inc., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Borrowings3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Borrowings. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Borrowings3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Borrowings. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Borrowings3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Borrowings. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Borrowings3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Borrowings. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Borrowings3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Borrowings. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Amgen Inc., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
AbbVie Inc.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
Danaher Corp.
Eli Lilly & Co.
Gilead Sciences Inc.
Johnson & Johnson
Merck & Co. Inc.
Pfizer Inc.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2024 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Over the observed periods, several key trends and changes can be identified in the financial metrics presented.

Economic Profit
The economic profit demonstrates a declining trajectory from 2020 through 2024. Starting at 4,505 million US$ in 2020, it decreases significantly to 2,937 million US$ in 2021 and remains relatively stable in 2022 at 2,905 million US$. However, in 2023, the economic profit further reduces to 1,919 million US$, followed by a sharp decline to a negative value of -39 million US$ in 2024. This trend signals deteriorating profitability and suggests increasing challenges in generating returns above the cost of capital towards the latter period.
Invested Capital
Invested capital shows an overall increasing pattern until 2023, rising from 38,776 million US$ in 2020 to a peak of 69,976 million US$ in 2023. Subsequently, there is a decline in 2024, falling to 63,169 million US$. The considerable increase up to 2023 indicates substantial additional investments or capital employed in the business, while the decrease in 2024 might reflect divestments, asset disposals, or revaluation effects.
Economic Spread Ratio
The economic spread ratio, which assesses the spread between returns and cost of capital as a percentage, experiences a pronounced downward trend. It descends from a strong 11.62% in 2020 to around 7.3% in both 2021 and 2022, indicating a narrowing gap in economic returns. It further drops sharply to 2.74% in 2023 and reaches a slight negative value of -0.06% in 2024, reflecting a minimal or negative return over the cost of capital by the end of the observed period.

In summary, the firm exhibits a weakening economic profit and economic spread performance over the years, despite an earlier increase in invested capital. The negative economic profit and spread in the most recent year highlight potential concerns regarding capital efficiency and value creation going forward.


Economic Profit Margin

Amgen Inc., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Product sales
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
AbbVie Inc.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
Danaher Corp.
Eli Lilly & Co.
Gilead Sciences Inc.
Johnson & Johnson
Merck & Co. Inc.
Pfizer Inc.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2024 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Product sales
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit showed a clear declining trend over the observed periods. Starting at $4,505 million in 2020, it decreased to $2,937 million in 2021 and further declined slightly to $2,905 million in 2022. The downward trajectory continued more sharply in 2023, with economic profit dropping to $1,919 million, and ultimately turning negative in 2024 with a value of -$39 million, indicating the company may have incurred economic losses by the end of that year.
Product Sales
Product sales demonstrated consistent growth throughout the period. Beginning at $24,240 million in 2020, sales remained relatively stable in 2021 at $24,297 million, and then increased steadily to $24,801 million in 2022. The upward momentum accelerated in the subsequent years, reaching $26,910 million in 2023 and notably rising to $32,026 million in 2024. This trend reflects a strengthening revenue base despite the challenges seen in profitability.
Economic Profit Margin
The economic profit margin mirrored the decline observed in economic profit. From a relatively high margin of 18.59% in 2020, it decreased substantially to 12.09% in 2021 and slightly further to 11.71% in 2022. The decline became more pronounced in 2023, reaching 7.13%, and in 2024 the margin turned negative at -0.12%. This indicates that not only did profitability decline, but the efficiency in converting sales into economic profit deteriorated over time.
Summary Insight
Overall, the data indicates a dichotomy between increasing product sales and declining profitability measures. While the company experienced growth in revenue from product sales each year, economic profit and economic profit margins consistently fell, ultimately resulting in an economic loss by 2024. This suggests rising costs, decreasing operational efficiency, or other financial pressures are eroding profit despite sales growth. Close attention to cost management and margin improvement would be warranted to reverse these trends.