Stock Analysis on Net

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY)

$24.99

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

Economic Profit

Eli Lilly & Co., economic profit calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2024 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


The financial data over the five-year period reveals notable fluctuations in key performance metrics, highlighting periods of both decline and recovery.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
The net operating profit after taxes shows a downward trend from 6,357,340 thousand US dollars in 2020 to a low of 3,090,452 thousand US dollars in 2023. However, there is a significant rebound in 2024, with NOPAT rising sharply to 8,466,038 thousand US dollars, surpassing the initial value in 2020.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital exhibits a gradual increase from 8.11% in 2020 to 8.51% in 2023, followed by a slight decrease to 8.49% in 2024. This indicates a relatively stable but slightly upward trend in the company’s weighted average cost of capital over the observed period.
Invested Capital
Invested capital shows variability with an initial increase from 24,557,100 thousand US dollars in 2020 to 26,139,800 thousand US dollars in 2021, then declines to 24,302,500 thousand US dollars in 2022. Subsequently, there is a marked increase in 2023 and 2024, reaching 35,800,600 thousand US dollars, reflecting substantial capital deployment or acquisition activity towards the end of the period.
Economic Profit
Economic profit follows a pattern similar to NOPAT, declining from 4,365,609 thousand US dollars in 2020 to a low point of 590,999 thousand US dollars in 2023. This is followed by a strong rebound to 5,425,742 thousand US dollars in 2024. Despite fluctuations, economic profit remains positive throughout, indicating value creation albeit with varying intensity across the years.

In summary, the period is characterized by a decline in operating profitability and economic profit until 2023, alongside fluctuating invested capital. The strong recovery in 2024 suggests an improvement in operational efficiency or revenue generation, supported by increased capital invested. The modest changes in the cost of capital imply that financing conditions remained relatively stable, with operational factors likely driving the profitability variance.


Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Eli Lilly & Co., NOPAT calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net income
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowances2
Increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve3
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents4
Interest expense
Interest expense, operating lease liability5
Adjusted interest expense
Tax benefit of interest expense6
Adjusted interest expense, after taxes7
(Gain) loss on marketable securities
Interest income
Investment income, before taxes
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income8
Investment income, after taxes9
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowances.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve. See details »

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income.

5 2024 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

6 2024 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense = Adjusted interest expense × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

7 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income.

8 2024 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

9 Elimination of after taxes investment income.


The financial data reveals notable fluctuations in both net income and net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) over the five-year period ending in 2024.

Net Income

Net income displayed a downward trend from 2020 to 2023, decreasing from 6,193,700 thousand US dollars in 2020 to 5,240,400 thousand US dollars in 2023. However, in 2024, net income surged significantly to 10,590,000 thousand US dollars, almost doubling the previous year’s figure. This sharp increase suggests an exceptional improvement in profitability during the final reported year.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)

NOPAT exhibited a consistent decline throughout the period from 2020 through 2023, beginning at 6,357,340 thousand US dollars in 2020 and dropping steadily to 3,090,452 thousand US dollars in 2023. This represents a reduction of more than 50% over these years. However, in 2024, NOPAT rebounded strongly, rising to 8,466,038 thousand US dollars, indicating a considerable recovery in operating profitability after taxes.

Overall Insights

The downward trend in both net income and NOPAT from 2020 to 2023 may reflect operational challenges or increased costs impacting profitability. The significant rebound in 2024 for both metrics suggests a positive turnaround, possibly as a result of improved operational efficiency, cost management, or increased revenues. The divergence in magnitude between net income and NOPAT in 2024, with net income showing a larger increase, may imply changes in non-operating factors, tax strategies, or extraordinary items affecting the net income figure.


Cash Operating Taxes

Eli Lilly & Co., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Income taxes
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense
Less: Tax imposed on investment income
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).


Income Taxes
The amount of income taxes showed a declining trend from 2020 to 2022, decreasing from approximately 1,036,200 thousand USD in 2020 to 561,600 thousand USD in 2022. This represents almost a halving over this period. However, starting in 2023, there was a significant increase in income taxes, rising sharply to about 1,314,200 thousand USD and continuing upward to 2,090,400 thousand USD in 2024. This reversal suggests a change in taxable income or tax strategy leading to a more than threefold increase from the 2022 low.
Cash Operating Taxes
Cash operating taxes exhibited a consistent year-over-year increase across the entire period. Beginning at roughly 1,244,662 thousand USD in 2020, the amount rose to 1,446,213 thousand USD in 2021. This upward trend accelerated considerably starting in 2022, with cash operating taxes reaching 2,811,147 thousand USD, then 3,731,159 thousand USD in 2023, and finally 4,911,605 thousand USD in 2024. The steady and strong growth in this metric indicates increasing operational tax expenses, potentially reflecting higher operating profits or changes in tax regulations impacting cash tax outflows.
Summary of Trends
Overall, while income taxes initially declined before a sharp increase in later years, cash operating taxes steadily increased every year with accelerating growth. This divergence suggests that while reporting or accrual-based tax expenses (income taxes) fluctuated, the actual cash tax payments consistently rose, implying increasing operational profitability or other factors driving higher taxation cash flows. The pronounced rise from 2022 onwards in both categories signals a significant change in the tax or operational landscape during this more recent period.

Invested Capital

Eli Lilly & Co., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Short-term borrowings and current maturities of long-term debt
Long-term debt, excluding current maturities
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowances3
LIFO reserve4
Equity equivalents5
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax6
Noncontrolling interests
Adjusted total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity
Construction in progress7
Investments8
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of LIFO reserve. See details »

5 Addition of equity equivalents to total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity.

6 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

7 Subtraction of construction in progress.

8 Subtraction of investments.


The financial data over the five-year period reveals notable trends regarding the company’s debt levels, equity, and invested capital.

Total reported debt & leases
This figure remained relatively stable from 2020 through 2022, fluctuating slightly around 17 billion US dollars. However, there was a significant increase starting in 2023, rising sharply to approximately 26.3 billion and further increasing to around 34.8 billion by the end of 2024. This upward trajectory indicates a substantial rise in debt and lease obligations in the most recent years.
Total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity
Shareholders’ equity showed a consistent upward trend throughout the period. It increased from about 5.6 billion in 2020 to nearly 9.0 billion in 2021, followed by further growth to approximately 10.6 billion in 2022. Although there was only a modest increase in 2023, equity rose notably again in 2024 to approximately 14.2 billion. This pattern reflects overall strengthening in the company’s equity base over the period.
Invested capital
Invested capital exhibited some volatility but generally increased over the five-year span. After a rise from about 24.6 billion in 2020 to 26.1 billion in 2021, it declined to 24.3 billion in 2022, suggesting some contraction or divestment activities. Subsequently, invested capital expanded significantly in the last two years, reaching approximately 29.4 billion in 2023 and 35.8 billion in 2024. This uptrend indicates increased allocation of resources, possibly for growth or expansion purposes.

In summary, the company’s financial structure demonstrates a rising reliance on debt from 2023 onward, accompanied by steady gains in shareholders’ equity. The invested capital reflects initial contraction followed by substantial growth, consistent with strategic investments or asset acquisitions. The combined trends suggest an aggressive capital deployment strategy supported by increased leverage and equity growth.


Cost of Capital

Eli Lilly & Co., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Eli Lilly & Co., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
AbbVie Inc.
Amgen Inc.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
Danaher Corp.
Gilead Sciences Inc.
Johnson & Johnson
Merck & Co. Inc.
Pfizer Inc.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2024 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit

The economic profit experienced a significant decline from 4,365,609 thousand USD in 2020 to a low of 590,999 thousand USD in 2023, indicating a substantial reduction in value generated above the cost of capital during that period. However, a notable recovery occurred in 2024, with economic profit rising sharply to 5,425,742 thousand USD, surpassing the 2020 level.

Invested Capital

Invested capital exhibited fluctuations over the observed years. It increased modestly from 24,557,100 thousand USD in 2020 to 26,139,800 thousand USD in 2021, then decreased to 24,302,500 thousand USD in 2022. Subsequently, it rose steadily to 29,384,700 thousand USD in 2023 and further to 35,800,600 thousand USD in 2024. This upward trend in the latter years suggests increased resource allocation or asset acquisition.

Economic Spread Ratio

The economic spread ratio declined from 17.78% in 2020 to a low of 2.01% in 2023, reflecting diminishing returns relative to the cost of capital during this period. In 2024, there was a recovery to 15.16%, indicating an improvement in value generation efficiency, though not fully reaching the initial 2020 level.

Overall Analysis

The data exhibits a pattern of decreasing economic profitability and spread from 2020 through 2023, coupled with fluctuating invested capital. The pronounced dip in economic profit and economic spread ratio by 2023 points to challenges in generating returns above capital costs during that time. Nonetheless, 2024 shows a strong resurgence in economic profit alongside an increase in invested capital and improvement in economic spread ratio, signaling enhanced operational efficiency and strategic capital deployment.


Economic Profit Margin

Eli Lilly & Co., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
Revenue
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
AbbVie Inc.
Amgen Inc.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
Danaher Corp.
Gilead Sciences Inc.
Johnson & Johnson
Merck & Co. Inc.
Pfizer Inc.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2024 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Revenue
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Revenue Growth
The revenue exhibited a consistent upward trend over the presented periods. Starting at approximately $24.54 billion in 2020, revenue increased steadily each year, reaching about $45.04 billion by the end of 2024. This represents significant growth, particularly notable between 2023 and 2024, where the increase is notably larger compared to previous years.
Economic Profit Trend
The economic profit showed a fluctuating pattern. It began at around $4.37 billion in 2020, then declined steadily through 2021, 2022, and 2023, reaching a low point near $591 million. However, in 2024, there was a pronounced recovery, with economic profit rising sharply to approximately $5.43 billion, surpassing the initial 2020 level.
Economic Profit Margin
The economic profit margin, expressed as a percentage, followed a downward trajectory from 17.79% in 2020 to a low of 1.73% in 2023. Despite this decline, the margin rebounded to 12.05% in 2024, indicating improved profitability relative to revenue in that year.
Overall Financial Performance Insights
Despite consistent revenue growth throughout the period, profitability as measured by both economic profit and its margin experienced a considerable decline until 2023. The marked recovery in economic profit and margin in 2024 suggests either improved cost efficiency, a shift in product mix towards higher-margin offerings, or other operational enhancements that significantly boosted profitability. The disparity between steady revenue growth and fluctuating economic profit highlights the importance of factors beyond sales volume in determining financial performance.