Stock Analysis on Net

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY)

$24.99

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

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Economic Profit

Eli Lilly & Co., economic profit calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2024 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


The period under review demonstrates fluctuating financial performance as measured by economic profit. Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) initially decreased before experiencing substantial growth, while the cost of capital remained relatively stable. Invested capital exhibited an increasing trend over the five-year period. Consequently, economic profit mirrored the NOPAT trend, declining and then recovering significantly.

NOPAT Trend
Net operating profit after taxes decreased from US$6,357,340 thousand in 2020 to US$4,320,468 thousand in 2022, representing a contraction over two years. A significant recovery occurred in 2023, followed by substantial growth in 2024, reaching US$8,466,038 thousand. This indicates a potential turnaround in operational profitability.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital showed a modest increasing trend from 8.32% in 2020 to 8.73% in 2023, before decreasing slightly to 8.72% in 2024. The fluctuations were relatively small, suggesting a consistent, though slightly rising, cost of funding throughout the period.
Invested Capital
Invested capital increased from US$24,557,100 thousand in 2020 to US$35,800,600 thousand in 2024. This growth was not linear, with a decrease observed between 2021 and 2022, but overall demonstrates a commitment to expanding the capital base.
Economic Profit
Economic profit followed a similar pattern to NOPAT, declining from US$4,313,943 thousand in 2020 to US$525,292 thousand in 2023. The substantial increase in NOPAT in 2024 drove a corresponding increase in economic profit to US$5,345,997 thousand. This suggests that the company is generating returns exceeding its cost of capital, particularly in the most recent year.

The interplay between NOPAT, cost of capital, and invested capital significantly influenced economic profit. The recovery in economic profit in 2024 is noteworthy, driven by the substantial increase in NOPAT, despite the continued growth in invested capital and a slightly elevated cost of capital.


Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Eli Lilly & Co., NOPAT calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net income
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowances2
Increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve3
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents4
Interest expense
Interest expense, operating lease liability5
Adjusted interest expense
Tax benefit of interest expense6
Adjusted interest expense, after taxes7
(Gain) loss on marketable securities
Interest income
Investment income, before taxes
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income8
Investment income, after taxes9
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowances.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve. See details »

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income.

5 2024 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

6 2024 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense = Adjusted interest expense × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

7 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income.

8 2024 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

9 Elimination of after taxes investment income.


The financial data reveals notable fluctuations in both net income and net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) over the five-year period ending in 2024.

Net Income

Net income displayed a downward trend from 2020 to 2023, decreasing from 6,193,700 thousand US dollars in 2020 to 5,240,400 thousand US dollars in 2023. However, in 2024, net income surged significantly to 10,590,000 thousand US dollars, almost doubling the previous year’s figure. This sharp increase suggests an exceptional improvement in profitability during the final reported year.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)

NOPAT exhibited a consistent decline throughout the period from 2020 through 2023, beginning at 6,357,340 thousand US dollars in 2020 and dropping steadily to 3,090,452 thousand US dollars in 2023. This represents a reduction of more than 50% over these years. However, in 2024, NOPAT rebounded strongly, rising to 8,466,038 thousand US dollars, indicating a considerable recovery in operating profitability after taxes.

Overall Insights

The downward trend in both net income and NOPAT from 2020 to 2023 may reflect operational challenges or increased costs impacting profitability. The significant rebound in 2024 for both metrics suggests a positive turnaround, possibly as a result of improved operational efficiency, cost management, or increased revenues. The divergence in magnitude between net income and NOPAT in 2024, with net income showing a larger increase, may imply changes in non-operating factors, tax strategies, or extraordinary items affecting the net income figure.


Cash Operating Taxes

Eli Lilly & Co., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Income taxes
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense
Less: Tax imposed on investment income
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).


Income Taxes
The amount of income taxes showed a declining trend from 2020 to 2022, decreasing from approximately 1,036,200 thousand USD in 2020 to 561,600 thousand USD in 2022. This represents almost a halving over this period. However, starting in 2023, there was a significant increase in income taxes, rising sharply to about 1,314,200 thousand USD and continuing upward to 2,090,400 thousand USD in 2024. This reversal suggests a change in taxable income or tax strategy leading to a more than threefold increase from the 2022 low.
Cash Operating Taxes
Cash operating taxes exhibited a consistent year-over-year increase across the entire period. Beginning at roughly 1,244,662 thousand USD in 2020, the amount rose to 1,446,213 thousand USD in 2021. This upward trend accelerated considerably starting in 2022, with cash operating taxes reaching 2,811,147 thousand USD, then 3,731,159 thousand USD in 2023, and finally 4,911,605 thousand USD in 2024. The steady and strong growth in this metric indicates increasing operational tax expenses, potentially reflecting higher operating profits or changes in tax regulations impacting cash tax outflows.
Summary of Trends
Overall, while income taxes initially declined before a sharp increase in later years, cash operating taxes steadily increased every year with accelerating growth. This divergence suggests that while reporting or accrual-based tax expenses (income taxes) fluctuated, the actual cash tax payments consistently rose, implying increasing operational profitability or other factors driving higher taxation cash flows. The pronounced rise from 2022 onwards in both categories signals a significant change in the tax or operational landscape during this more recent period.

Invested Capital

Eli Lilly & Co., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Short-term borrowings and current maturities of long-term debt
Long-term debt, excluding current maturities
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowances3
LIFO reserve4
Equity equivalents5
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax6
Noncontrolling interests
Adjusted total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity
Construction in progress7
Investments8
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of LIFO reserve. See details »

5 Addition of equity equivalents to total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity.

6 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

7 Subtraction of construction in progress.

8 Subtraction of investments.


The financial data over the five-year period reveals notable trends regarding the company’s debt levels, equity, and invested capital.

Total reported debt & leases
This figure remained relatively stable from 2020 through 2022, fluctuating slightly around 17 billion US dollars. However, there was a significant increase starting in 2023, rising sharply to approximately 26.3 billion and further increasing to around 34.8 billion by the end of 2024. This upward trajectory indicates a substantial rise in debt and lease obligations in the most recent years.
Total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity
Shareholders’ equity showed a consistent upward trend throughout the period. It increased from about 5.6 billion in 2020 to nearly 9.0 billion in 2021, followed by further growth to approximately 10.6 billion in 2022. Although there was only a modest increase in 2023, equity rose notably again in 2024 to approximately 14.2 billion. This pattern reflects overall strengthening in the company’s equity base over the period.
Invested capital
Invested capital exhibited some volatility but generally increased over the five-year span. After a rise from about 24.6 billion in 2020 to 26.1 billion in 2021, it declined to 24.3 billion in 2022, suggesting some contraction or divestment activities. Subsequently, invested capital expanded significantly in the last two years, reaching approximately 29.4 billion in 2023 and 35.8 billion in 2024. This uptrend indicates increased allocation of resources, possibly for growth or expansion purposes.

In summary, the company’s financial structure demonstrates a rising reliance on debt from 2023 onward, accompanied by steady gains in shareholders’ equity. The invested capital reflects initial contraction followed by substantial growth, consistent with strategic investments or asset acquisitions. The combined trends suggest an aggressive capital deployment strategy supported by increased leverage and equity growth.


Cost of Capital

Eli Lilly & Co., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Eli Lilly & Co., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
AbbVie Inc.
Amgen Inc.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
Danaher Corp.
Gilead Sciences Inc.
Johnson & Johnson
Merck & Co. Inc.
Pfizer Inc.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2024 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


The economic spread ratio exhibited considerable fluctuation between 2020 and 2024. Initial values were relatively high, followed by a decline, and then a substantial increase in the most recent year. This suggests a changing relationship between the company’s economic profit and its invested capital.

Economic Spread Ratio Trend
In 2020, the economic spread ratio stood at 17.57%. This figure decreased to 10.89% in 2021, and continued to decline to 9.15% in 2022. A significant drop was observed in 2023, with the ratio falling to 1.79%. However, the ratio rebounded sharply in 2024, reaching 14.93%.

The economic spread ratio’s decline from 2020 to 2023 indicates that the company generated less economic profit relative to its invested capital during that period. The substantial increase in 2024 suggests improved efficiency in capital utilization or a significant rise in economic profit generation compared to the capital employed.

Relationship to Economic Profit
The economic spread ratio’s movement generally mirrored that of economic profit. While both decreased from 2020 to 2023, the increase in economic profit in 2024 was accompanied by a corresponding increase in the economic spread ratio. This correlation suggests that changes in economic profit are a primary driver of the observed fluctuations in the economic spread ratio.
Relationship to Invested Capital
Invested capital increased from 2020 to 2024, with a notable increase between 2023 and 2024. The economic spread ratio’s decline from 2020 to 2023, despite the increase in invested capital, suggests that the returns on that capital were diminishing. The ratio’s recovery in 2024, despite further increases in invested capital, indicates improved capital efficiency.

The observed trends suggest a period of diminishing returns on invested capital followed by a recent improvement. Further investigation into the factors driving these changes in economic profit and invested capital would be beneficial for a more comprehensive understanding of the company’s financial performance.


Economic Profit Margin

Eli Lilly & Co., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
Revenue
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
AbbVie Inc.
Amgen Inc.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
Danaher Corp.
Gilead Sciences Inc.
Johnson & Johnson
Merck & Co. Inc.
Pfizer Inc.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2024 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Revenue
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


The economic profit exhibited considerable fluctuation between 2020 and 2024. Initial values were strong, but a noticeable decline occurred before a substantial recovery in the most recent year. Revenue demonstrated a consistent upward trajectory throughout the period, though the rate of growth varied.

Economic Profit
Economic profit peaked in 2020 at US$4,313,943 thousand, then decreased over the subsequent two years, reaching a low of US$525,292 thousand in 2023. A significant increase was observed in 2024, with economic profit rising to US$5,345,997 thousand, exceeding the 2020 level.
Revenue
Revenue increased steadily from US$24,539,800 thousand in 2020 to US$45,042,700 thousand in 2024. The largest year-over-year increase occurred between 2023 and 2024, suggesting accelerated growth during that period. Growth rates were comparatively moderate between 2020 and 2022.
Economic Profit Margin
The economic profit margin mirrored the trend in economic profit. It began at 17.58% in 2020, declining to a low of 1.54% in 2023. The margin rebounded strongly in 2024, reaching 11.87%. This indicates that while revenue consistently increased, the ability to translate that revenue into economic profit was inconsistent, with a marked improvement in the latest year. The margin’s volatility suggests sensitivity to changes in profitability relative to revenue.

The divergence between revenue growth and economic profit margin highlights a period where revenue increased without a proportional increase in economic profit. The substantial recovery in both economic profit and the economic profit margin in 2024 suggests improved operational efficiency or cost management, or a shift in product mix towards higher-margin offerings.