Stock Analysis on Net

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY)

$24.99

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

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Economic Profit

Eli Lilly & Co., economic profit calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2024 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


The analysis of the financial data reveals several noteworthy trends in the company's performance over the five-year period ending December 31, 2024.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
The NOPAT demonstrates a fluctuating trajectory with an initial decline followed by a considerable rebound. Starting from approximately 6.36 billion USD in 2020, NOPAT decreased to around 3.09 billion USD in 2023, exhibiting a substantial downward trend over three years. However, in 2024, there is a pronounced increase to nearly 8.47 billion USD, indicating a strong recovery and improvement in operating profitability.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital shows a gradual upward trend, rising from 8.15% in 2020 to 8.54% in 2023, then slightly decreasing to 8.53% in 2024. This suggests a modest increase in the company's financing costs or risks over the period, stabilizing towards the end.
Invested Capital
Invested capital exhibits an overall increasing pattern. After a slight rise from approximately 24.56 billion USD in 2020 to 26.14 billion USD in 2021, it drops to 24.30 billion USD in 2022, then climbs significantly to 29.38 billion USD in 2023 and further to 35.80 billion USD in 2024. This reflects expanding capital investments or asset base buildup, especially during the final two years.
Economic Profit
The economic profit trends downward sharply from around 4.36 billion USD in 2020 to approximately 580 million USD in 2023. This steep decline over four years points to diminished value creation relative to the cost of capital. Nonetheless, in 2024, economic profit rises considerably to about 5.41 billion USD, indicating restoration of superior returns above the cost of capital.

Overall, the period is characterized by a notable dip in profitability and value generation from 2020 to 2023, coinciding with rising cost of capital and fluctuating invested capital. The strong rebound in 2024 in both NOPAT and economic profit, alongside expanding invested capital, suggests a significant turnaround in operational efficiency and capital utilization. The slight easing of cost of capital in the final year further supports improved financial conditions. These patterns imply that while the company faced challenges reducing profit and value for several years, it managed to reverse the trend and achieve substantial growth and profitability by the end of 2024.


Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Eli Lilly & Co., NOPAT calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net income
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowances2
Increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve3
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents4
Interest expense
Interest expense, operating lease liability5
Adjusted interest expense
Tax benefit of interest expense6
Adjusted interest expense, after taxes7
(Gain) loss on marketable securities
Interest income
Investment income, before taxes
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income8
Investment income, after taxes9
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowances.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve. See details »

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income.

5 2024 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

6 2024 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense = Adjusted interest expense × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

7 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income.

8 2024 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

9 Elimination of after taxes investment income.


The financial data reveals notable fluctuations in both net income and net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) over the five-year period ending in 2024.

Net Income

Net income displayed a downward trend from 2020 to 2023, decreasing from 6,193,700 thousand US dollars in 2020 to 5,240,400 thousand US dollars in 2023. However, in 2024, net income surged significantly to 10,590,000 thousand US dollars, almost doubling the previous year’s figure. This sharp increase suggests an exceptional improvement in profitability during the final reported year.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)

NOPAT exhibited a consistent decline throughout the period from 2020 through 2023, beginning at 6,357,340 thousand US dollars in 2020 and dropping steadily to 3,090,452 thousand US dollars in 2023. This represents a reduction of more than 50% over these years. However, in 2024, NOPAT rebounded strongly, rising to 8,466,038 thousand US dollars, indicating a considerable recovery in operating profitability after taxes.

Overall Insights

The downward trend in both net income and NOPAT from 2020 to 2023 may reflect operational challenges or increased costs impacting profitability. The significant rebound in 2024 for both metrics suggests a positive turnaround, possibly as a result of improved operational efficiency, cost management, or increased revenues. The divergence in magnitude between net income and NOPAT in 2024, with net income showing a larger increase, may imply changes in non-operating factors, tax strategies, or extraordinary items affecting the net income figure.


Cash Operating Taxes

Eli Lilly & Co., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Income taxes
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense
Less: Tax imposed on investment income
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).


Income Taxes
The amount of income taxes showed a declining trend from 2020 to 2022, decreasing from approximately 1,036,200 thousand USD in 2020 to 561,600 thousand USD in 2022. This represents almost a halving over this period. However, starting in 2023, there was a significant increase in income taxes, rising sharply to about 1,314,200 thousand USD and continuing upward to 2,090,400 thousand USD in 2024. This reversal suggests a change in taxable income or tax strategy leading to a more than threefold increase from the 2022 low.
Cash Operating Taxes
Cash operating taxes exhibited a consistent year-over-year increase across the entire period. Beginning at roughly 1,244,662 thousand USD in 2020, the amount rose to 1,446,213 thousand USD in 2021. This upward trend accelerated considerably starting in 2022, with cash operating taxes reaching 2,811,147 thousand USD, then 3,731,159 thousand USD in 2023, and finally 4,911,605 thousand USD in 2024. The steady and strong growth in this metric indicates increasing operational tax expenses, potentially reflecting higher operating profits or changes in tax regulations impacting cash tax outflows.
Summary of Trends
Overall, while income taxes initially declined before a sharp increase in later years, cash operating taxes steadily increased every year with accelerating growth. This divergence suggests that while reporting or accrual-based tax expenses (income taxes) fluctuated, the actual cash tax payments consistently rose, implying increasing operational profitability or other factors driving higher taxation cash flows. The pronounced rise from 2022 onwards in both categories signals a significant change in the tax or operational landscape during this more recent period.

Invested Capital

Eli Lilly & Co., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Short-term borrowings and current maturities of long-term debt
Long-term debt, excluding current maturities
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowances3
LIFO reserve4
Equity equivalents5
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax6
Noncontrolling interests
Adjusted total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity
Construction in progress7
Investments8
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of LIFO reserve. See details »

5 Addition of equity equivalents to total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity.

6 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

7 Subtraction of construction in progress.

8 Subtraction of investments.


The financial data over the five-year period reveals notable trends regarding the company’s debt levels, equity, and invested capital.

Total reported debt & leases
This figure remained relatively stable from 2020 through 2022, fluctuating slightly around 17 billion US dollars. However, there was a significant increase starting in 2023, rising sharply to approximately 26.3 billion and further increasing to around 34.8 billion by the end of 2024. This upward trajectory indicates a substantial rise in debt and lease obligations in the most recent years.
Total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity
Shareholders’ equity showed a consistent upward trend throughout the period. It increased from about 5.6 billion in 2020 to nearly 9.0 billion in 2021, followed by further growth to approximately 10.6 billion in 2022. Although there was only a modest increase in 2023, equity rose notably again in 2024 to approximately 14.2 billion. This pattern reflects overall strengthening in the company’s equity base over the period.
Invested capital
Invested capital exhibited some volatility but generally increased over the five-year span. After a rise from about 24.6 billion in 2020 to 26.1 billion in 2021, it declined to 24.3 billion in 2022, suggesting some contraction or divestment activities. Subsequently, invested capital expanded significantly in the last two years, reaching approximately 29.4 billion in 2023 and 35.8 billion in 2024. This uptrend indicates increased allocation of resources, possibly for growth or expansion purposes.

In summary, the company’s financial structure demonstrates a rising reliance on debt from 2023 onward, accompanied by steady gains in shareholders’ equity. The invested capital reflects initial contraction followed by substantial growth, consistent with strategic investments or asset acquisitions. The combined trends suggest an aggressive capital deployment strategy supported by increased leverage and equity growth.


Cost of Capital

Eli Lilly & Co., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Eli Lilly & Co., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
AbbVie Inc.
Amgen Inc.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
Danaher Corp.
Gilead Sciences Inc.
Johnson & Johnson
Merck & Co. Inc.
Pfizer Inc.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2024 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit Trends
Economic profit experienced a significant decline from 4,356,795 thousand US dollars in 2020 to 579,790 thousand US dollars in 2023, indicating a reduction in value creation over this period. However, in 2024, there was a notable rebound with economic profit increasing sharply to 5,412,137 thousand US dollars, exceeding the initial 2020 level and suggesting a strong recovery in profitability.
Invested Capital Trends
Invested capital showed a generally increasing trend over the five-year period. Starting from 24,557,100 thousand US dollars in 2020, it rose to 26,139,800 thousand US dollars in 2021, then decreased slightly in 2022 to 24,302,500 thousand US dollars. Subsequently, it increased steadily to 29,384,700 thousand US dollars in 2023 and further to 35,800,600 thousand US dollars in 2024. This overall growth suggests ongoing investment and capital deployment expansion.
Economic Spread Ratio Trends
The economic spread ratio, which reflects the return relative to the cost of capital, decreased significantly from 17.74% in 2020 to a low of 1.97% in 2023. This indicates diminishing returns on invested capital during these years. In 2024, the ratio improved markedly to 15.12%, representing a recovery in the efficiency and profitability of capital utilization, though still slightly below the 2020 peak.
Summary and Insights
The period between 2020 and 2023 was characterized by declining economic profit and economic spread ratio, despite fluctuating invested capital. This suggests challenges in generating value from investments during these years. The strong rebound in 2024 across all metrics indicates a significant improvement in financial performance and capital efficiency. The increasing invested capital, coupled with the recovery in economic profit and spread, points to enhanced operational effectiveness and potentially successful strategic initiatives implemented in the latest year.

Economic Profit Margin

Eli Lilly & Co., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
Revenue
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
AbbVie Inc.
Amgen Inc.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
Danaher Corp.
Gilead Sciences Inc.
Johnson & Johnson
Merck & Co. Inc.
Pfizer Inc.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2024 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Revenue
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit demonstrates a fluctuating pattern over the period observed. Starting at 4,356,795 thousand US dollars in 2020, it declined significantly to 2,891,779 thousand US dollars in 2021 and continued to decrease to 2,267,363 thousand US dollars in 2022. A more pronounced drop is evident in 2023, with economic profit shrinking to 579,790 thousand US dollars. However, a notable recovery occurs in 2024, where economic profit reaches 5,412,137 thousand US dollars, the highest value in the series.
Revenue
Revenue shows a consistent upward trend throughout the five years. Beginning at 24,539,800 thousand US dollars in 2020, revenue increases to 28,318,400 thousand US dollars in 2021, and marginally rises to 28,541,400 thousand US dollars in 2022. This growth accelerates more sharply in 2023, reaching 34,124,100 thousand US dollars, and continues strongly in 2024 to 45,042,700 thousand US dollars, indicating robust sales expansion.
Economic Profit Margin
The economic profit margin follows a downward trend initially, starting at 17.75% in 2020 and decreasing to 10.21% in 2021, then further declining to 7.94% in 2022. By 2023, the margin drops substantially to 1.7%, reflecting a reduced proportion of profitability relative to revenue. Despite this low point, the margin rebounds in 2024 to 12.02%, which remains below the starting point but represents a significant improvement from the previous year.
Summary
Overall, revenue consistently increases throughout the period, signaling strong top-line growth. Meanwhile, economic profit fluctuates more markedly, showing a decline from 2020 through 2023 before surging in 2024. The economic profit margin similarly decreases from 2020 to 2023, indicating lower profitability efficiency relative to revenue, then partially recovers in 2024. These patterns suggest temporary challenges affecting profitability despite growing revenues, followed by a recovery phase in the most recent year.