Stock Analysis on Net

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY)

$24.99

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

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Economic Profit

Eli Lilly & Co., economic profit calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2024 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


The financial data demonstrates several notable trends across the observed five-year period.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
NOPAT shows a declining trend from 2020 to 2023, dropping from approximately $6.36 billion to about $3.09 billion. This represents a significant reduction over four years. However, in 2024, there is a marked rebound to around $8.47 billion, which exceeds the initial level recorded in 2020. This suggests a recovery or improvement in operational profitability after a period of decline.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital exhibits a gradual upward trend from 8.3% in 2020 to a peak of 8.71% in 2023, followed by a slight decrease to 8.69% in 2024. This indicates a modest increase in the required rate of return over time, which could have implications for investment decisions and valuation.
Invested Capital
Invested capital initially rises from approximately $24.56 billion in 2020 to $26.14 billion in 2021, then declines to about $24.30 billion in 2022. Subsequently, it increases steadily to reach approximately $35.80 billion by 2024. This trend suggests fluctuating but overall increasing capital investment, with a significant rise in the last two years, possibly reflecting expansion or new strategic investments.
Economic Profit
Economic profit follows a downward trajectory from about $4.32 billion in 2020 to $532 million in 2023, showing a substantial decrease in value creation above the cost of capital. However, it subsequently recovers sharply to approximately $5.35 billion in 2024, paralleling the recovery seen in NOPAT. This indicates renewed value generation in the most recent year after a period of diminished profitability relative to invested capital and cost of capital.

Overall, the data reveals a period of declining profitability and value creation from 2020 through 2023, accompanied by fluctuating invested capital and an increasing cost of capital. The year 2024 stands out as a year of significant recovery and growth, with both NOPAT and economic profit increasing substantially, supported by higher invested capital and a slightly reduced cost of capital. This pattern may reflect changes in operational efficiency, market conditions, or strategic initiatives implemented towards the end of the period.


Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Eli Lilly & Co., NOPAT calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net income
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowances2
Increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve3
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents4
Interest expense
Interest expense, operating lease liability5
Adjusted interest expense
Tax benefit of interest expense6
Adjusted interest expense, after taxes7
(Gain) loss on marketable securities
Interest income
Investment income, before taxes
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income8
Investment income, after taxes9
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowances.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve. See details »

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income.

5 2024 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

6 2024 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense = Adjusted interest expense × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

7 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income.

8 2024 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

9 Elimination of after taxes investment income.


The financial data reveals notable fluctuations in both net income and net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) over the five-year period ending in 2024.

Net Income

Net income displayed a downward trend from 2020 to 2023, decreasing from 6,193,700 thousand US dollars in 2020 to 5,240,400 thousand US dollars in 2023. However, in 2024, net income surged significantly to 10,590,000 thousand US dollars, almost doubling the previous year’s figure. This sharp increase suggests an exceptional improvement in profitability during the final reported year.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)

NOPAT exhibited a consistent decline throughout the period from 2020 through 2023, beginning at 6,357,340 thousand US dollars in 2020 and dropping steadily to 3,090,452 thousand US dollars in 2023. This represents a reduction of more than 50% over these years. However, in 2024, NOPAT rebounded strongly, rising to 8,466,038 thousand US dollars, indicating a considerable recovery in operating profitability after taxes.

Overall Insights

The downward trend in both net income and NOPAT from 2020 to 2023 may reflect operational challenges or increased costs impacting profitability. The significant rebound in 2024 for both metrics suggests a positive turnaround, possibly as a result of improved operational efficiency, cost management, or increased revenues. The divergence in magnitude between net income and NOPAT in 2024, with net income showing a larger increase, may imply changes in non-operating factors, tax strategies, or extraordinary items affecting the net income figure.


Cash Operating Taxes

Eli Lilly & Co., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Income taxes
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense
Less: Tax imposed on investment income
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).


Income Taxes
The amount of income taxes showed a declining trend from 2020 to 2022, decreasing from approximately 1,036,200 thousand USD in 2020 to 561,600 thousand USD in 2022. This represents almost a halving over this period. However, starting in 2023, there was a significant increase in income taxes, rising sharply to about 1,314,200 thousand USD and continuing upward to 2,090,400 thousand USD in 2024. This reversal suggests a change in taxable income or tax strategy leading to a more than threefold increase from the 2022 low.
Cash Operating Taxes
Cash operating taxes exhibited a consistent year-over-year increase across the entire period. Beginning at roughly 1,244,662 thousand USD in 2020, the amount rose to 1,446,213 thousand USD in 2021. This upward trend accelerated considerably starting in 2022, with cash operating taxes reaching 2,811,147 thousand USD, then 3,731,159 thousand USD in 2023, and finally 4,911,605 thousand USD in 2024. The steady and strong growth in this metric indicates increasing operational tax expenses, potentially reflecting higher operating profits or changes in tax regulations impacting cash tax outflows.
Summary of Trends
Overall, while income taxes initially declined before a sharp increase in later years, cash operating taxes steadily increased every year with accelerating growth. This divergence suggests that while reporting or accrual-based tax expenses (income taxes) fluctuated, the actual cash tax payments consistently rose, implying increasing operational profitability or other factors driving higher taxation cash flows. The pronounced rise from 2022 onwards in both categories signals a significant change in the tax or operational landscape during this more recent period.

Invested Capital

Eli Lilly & Co., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Short-term borrowings and current maturities of long-term debt
Long-term debt, excluding current maturities
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowances3
LIFO reserve4
Equity equivalents5
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax6
Noncontrolling interests
Adjusted total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity
Construction in progress7
Investments8
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of LIFO reserve. See details »

5 Addition of equity equivalents to total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity.

6 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

7 Subtraction of construction in progress.

8 Subtraction of investments.


The financial data over the five-year period reveals notable trends regarding the company’s debt levels, equity, and invested capital.

Total reported debt & leases
This figure remained relatively stable from 2020 through 2022, fluctuating slightly around 17 billion US dollars. However, there was a significant increase starting in 2023, rising sharply to approximately 26.3 billion and further increasing to around 34.8 billion by the end of 2024. This upward trajectory indicates a substantial rise in debt and lease obligations in the most recent years.
Total Eli Lilly and Company shareholders’ equity
Shareholders’ equity showed a consistent upward trend throughout the period. It increased from about 5.6 billion in 2020 to nearly 9.0 billion in 2021, followed by further growth to approximately 10.6 billion in 2022. Although there was only a modest increase in 2023, equity rose notably again in 2024 to approximately 14.2 billion. This pattern reflects overall strengthening in the company’s equity base over the period.
Invested capital
Invested capital exhibited some volatility but generally increased over the five-year span. After a rise from about 24.6 billion in 2020 to 26.1 billion in 2021, it declined to 24.3 billion in 2022, suggesting some contraction or divestment activities. Subsequently, invested capital expanded significantly in the last two years, reaching approximately 29.4 billion in 2023 and 35.8 billion in 2024. This uptrend indicates increased allocation of resources, possibly for growth or expansion purposes.

In summary, the company’s financial structure demonstrates a rising reliance on debt from 2023 onward, accompanied by steady gains in shareholders’ equity. The invested capital reflects initial contraction followed by substantial growth, consistent with strategic investments or asset acquisitions. The combined trends suggest an aggressive capital deployment strategy supported by increased leverage and equity growth.


Cost of Capital

Eli Lilly & Co., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Eli Lilly & Co., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
AbbVie Inc.
Amgen Inc.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
Danaher Corp.
Gilead Sciences Inc.
Johnson & Johnson
Merck & Co. Inc.
Pfizer Inc.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2024 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic profit
The economic profit demonstrates a significant fluctuation over the five-year period. Starting at 4,319,241 thousand USD in 2020, it declined sharply to 2,851,195 thousand USD in 2021 and further dropped to 2,228,315 thousand USD in 2022. The most notable decline occurred in 2023, with economic profit decreasing to 532,030 thousand USD. However, there was a strong recovery in 2024, with economic profit reaching its highest point at 5,354,175 thousand USD, surpassing the 2020 level.
Invested capital
Invested capital shows a general upward trend throughout the period. It increased from 24,557,100 thousand USD in 2020 to 26,139,800 thousand USD in 2021, followed by a slight decline to 24,302,500 thousand USD in 2022. After this dip, invested capital grew substantially in 2023, reaching 29,384,700 thousand USD, and continued to expand in 2024 to 35,800,600 thousand USD, indicating an expanding asset base or capital allocation.
Economic spread ratio
The economic spread ratio experienced significant variability. Beginning at a high of 17.59% in 2020, it decreased to 10.91% in 2021 and continued its downward trend to 9.17% in 2022. The ratio fell sharply to 1.81% in 2023, indicating minimal returns relative to invested capital during that year. In 2024, the ratio rebounded robustly to 14.96%, signaling a return to higher economic profitability relative to invested capital.
Overall Observations
The data reveals a period of declining profitability and economic spread through 2021 to 2023, coupled with fluctuations in invested capital. The steep reduction in economic profit and economic spread ratio in 2023 suggests challenges in generating returns during this year despite the increase in invested capital. The rebound in 2024 reflects improved economic performance and more efficient use of capital, as evidenced by the recovery in both economic profit and economic spread ratio to near or above the levels recorded at the start of the period.

Economic Profit Margin

Eli Lilly & Co., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
Revenue
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
AbbVie Inc.
Amgen Inc.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
Danaher Corp.
Gilead Sciences Inc.
Johnson & Johnson
Merck & Co. Inc.
Pfizer Inc.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2024 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Revenue
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Revenue
The revenue displayed a generally increasing trend over the observed periods. From 2020 to 2021, there was a noticeable increase, continuing with a marginal increase in 2022. The years 2023 and 2024 exhibited more substantial growth, with 2024 reaching the highest revenue recorded in the dataset.
Economic Profit
The economic profit showed a declining trend from 2020 through 2023. Starting from a high point in 2020, it decreased significantly each year until reaching a low in 2023. However, in 2024, economic profit rebounded strongly, surpassing the earlier peak from 2020 and showing marked improvement.
Economic Profit Margin
Similar to economic profit, the economic profit margin declined continuously from 2020 to 2023, indicating a decreasing proportion of economic profit relative to revenue during this period. Despite revenue growth, the margin contracted each year until 2023. In 2024, the margin improved considerably, recovering to a level close to but still below the initial margin observed in 2020.
Overall Insights
The data indicates that while revenue consistently increased throughout the period, economic profit and its margin experienced a notable decline until 2023, suggesting rising costs, investments, or other factors impacting profitability. The sharp rebound in economic profit and margin in 2024 suggests successful measures taken to improve profitability or cost efficiency during that year. The resurgence in profitability metrics alongside growing revenue in 2024 highlights a positive turnaround in financial performance.