Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 757.81% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $1,437.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 305.55% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 30, 2026
End date: November 11, 2026
a = 4.4236
b = 0.0059
s = 0.0229
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0059) – 1
= 757.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0229) – 1
= 9.59%
September 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4236 + 0.0059 × 442 + 2 × 0.0229)
= Exp(7.0719)
= $1,178.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4236 + 0.0059 × 442 – 2 × 0.0229)
= Exp(6.9804)
= $1,075.34
November 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4236 + 0.0059 × 484 + 2 × 0.0229)
= Exp(7.3192)
= $1,509.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4236 + 0.0059 × 484 – 2 × 0.0229)
= Exp(7.2277)
= $1,377.05
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 757.81% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $1,437.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 28, 2026
End date: November 11, 2026
a = 5.4087
b = 0.0038
s = 0.0279
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 305.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0279) – 1
= 11.80%
October 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y325)
= Exp(a + b × X325 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4087 + 0.0038 × 470 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(7.2673)
= $1,432.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y325)
= Exp(a + b × X325 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4087 + 0.0038 × 470 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(7.1558)
= $1,281.55
November 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4087 + 0.0038 × 484 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(7.3210)
= $1,511.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4087 + 0.0038 × 484 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(7.2095)
= $1,352.26
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 305.55% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.