Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.88% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $1,183.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 212.91% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of September 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 26, 2026
End date: September 25, 2026
a = 7.2342
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0294
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0294) – 1
= 12.49%
June 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y239)
= Exp(a + b × X239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2342 + -0.0004 × 346 + 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(7.1514)
= $1,275.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y239)
= Exp(a + b × X239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2342 + -0.0004 × 346 – 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(7.0337)
= $1,134.17
September 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2342 + -0.0004 × 437 + 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(7.1141)
= $1,229.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2342 + -0.0004 × 437 – 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(6.9964)
= $1,092.69
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.88% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $1,183.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 8, 2026
End date: September 25, 2026
a = 5.7050
b = 0.0031
s = 0.0070
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 212.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0070) – 1
= 2.84%
September 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7050 + 0.0031 × 420 + 2 × 0.0070)
= Exp(7.0316)
= $1,131.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7050 + 0.0031 × 420 – 2 × 0.0070)
= Exp(7.0036)
= $1,100.59
September 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7050 + 0.0031 × 437 + 2 × 0.0070)
= Exp(7.0847)
= $1,193.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7050 + 0.0031 × 437 – 2 × 0.0070)
= Exp(7.0567)
= $1,160.64
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 212.91% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of September 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.