Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 421.81% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of June 26, 2026 was $1,208.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.77% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of June 26, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $21.43 (1.81%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 14, 2026
End date: June 16, 2026
a = 5.1315
b = 0.0045
s = 0.0307
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0045) – 1
= 421.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0307) – 1
= 13.06%
April 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y248)
= Exp(a + b × X248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 363 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1315 + 0.0045 × 363 + 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(6.8359)
= $930.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y248)
= Exp(a + b × X248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 363 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1315 + 0.0045 × 363 – 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(6.7132)
= $823.19
June 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 426 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1315 + 0.0045 × 426 + 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(7.1211)
= $1,237.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 426 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1315 + 0.0045 × 426 – 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(6.9984)
= $1,094.83
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 421.81% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of June 26, 2026 was $1,208.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2026
End date: June 25, 2026
a = 6.5422
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0231
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0231) – 1
= 9.70%
May 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5422 + 0.0011 × 401 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(7.0396)
= $1,140.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5422 + 0.0011 × 401 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(6.9470)
= $1,039.98
June 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5422 + 0.0011 × 435 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(7.0778)
= $1,185.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5422 + 0.0011 × 435 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(6.9852)
= $1,080.52
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.77% per annum.
- LLY price at the close of June 26, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $21.43 (1.81%).