Stock Analysis on Net

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.34% per annum.
  • JNJ price at the close of June 13, 2025 was $157.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.59 (3.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.37% per annum.
  • JNJ price at the close of June 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JNJ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 13, 2021
End date: July 23, 2024

a = 5.1221

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0376

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.34%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0376) – 1
= 16.21%

December 13, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y378)
= Exp(a + b × X378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 546 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1221 + -0.0001 × 546 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(5.1463)
= $171.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y378)
= Exp(a + b × X378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 546 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1221 + -0.0001 × 546 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.9961)
= $147.83

July 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,499 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1221 + -0.0001 × 1,499 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(5.0575)
= $157.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,499 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1221 + -0.0001 × 1,499 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.9073)
= $135.27

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.34% per annum.
  • JNJ price at the close of June 13, 2025 was $157.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.59 (3.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 30, 2023
End date: June 13, 2025

a = 4.9634

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0408

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.37%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0408) – 1
= 17.74%

January 30, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y661)
= Exp(a + b × X661 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9634 + 0.0000 × 959 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(5.0809)
= $160.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y661)
= Exp(a + b × X661 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9634 + 0.0000 × 959 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.9176)
= $136.67

June 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9634 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(5.1132)
= $166.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9634 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.9499)
= $141.16

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.37% per annum.
  • JNJ price at the close of June 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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