Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.33% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $276.32 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $43.42 (18.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.57% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of November 4, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.04 (0.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JNJ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 26, 2026
End date: June 22, 2026
a = 5.5169
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0291
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0291) – 1
= 12.34%
January 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y125)
= Exp(a + b × X125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5169 + -0.0003 × 182 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(5.5263)
= $251.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y125)
= Exp(a + b × X125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5169 + -0.0003 × 182 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(5.4099)
= $223.60
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5169 + -0.0003 × 329 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(5.4868)
= $241.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5169 + -0.0003 × 329 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(5.3704)
= $214.96
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.33% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $276.32 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $43.42 (18.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 16, 2026
End date: September 28, 2026
a = 5.0119
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0271
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 69.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0271) – 1
= 11.47%
April 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y181)
= Exp(a + b × X181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 262 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0119 + 0.0014 × 262 + 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.4452)
= $231.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y181)
= Exp(a + b × X181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 262 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0119 + 0.0014 × 262 – 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.3367)
= $207.82
September 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0119 + 0.0014 × 427 + 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.6839)
= $294.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0119 + 0.0014 × 427 – 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.5754)
= $263.85
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.57% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of November 4, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.04 (0.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.