Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.15% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $269.99 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $32.41 (13.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 76.63% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JNJ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 23, 2026
End date: June 22, 2026
a = 5.5070
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0303
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0303) – 1
= 12.87%
January 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y124)
= Exp(a + b × X124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5070 + -0.0002 × 179 + 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(5.5259)
= $251.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y124)
= Exp(a + b × X124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5070 + -0.0002 × 179 – 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(5.4048)
= $222.48
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5070 + -0.0002 × 329 + 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(5.4910)
= $242.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5070 + -0.0002 × 329 – 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(5.3699)
= $214.84
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.15% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $269.99 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $32.41 (13.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 4.9737
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0259
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 76.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0259) – 1
= 10.93%
April 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y184)
= Exp(a + b × X184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9737 + 0.0016 × 267 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.4417)
= $230.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y184)
= Exp(a + b × X184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9737 + 0.0016 × 267 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.3379)
= $208.08
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9737 + 0.0016 × 417 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.6755)
= $291.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9737 + 0.0016 × 417 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.5717)
= $262.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 76.63% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.