Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.22% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of June 12, 2026 was $240.87 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.89 (3.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.69% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of June 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JNJ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 5, 2026
End date: June 4, 2026
a = 5.7044
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0195
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0195) – 1
= 8.12%
February 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y195)
= Exp(a + b × X195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7044 + -0.0007 × 283 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(5.5386)
= $254.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y195)
= Exp(a + b × X195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7044 + -0.0007 × 283 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(5.4605)
= $235.21
June 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y277)
= Exp(a + b × X277 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 402 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7044 + -0.0007 × 402 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(5.4525)
= $233.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y277)
= Exp(a + b × X277 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 402 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7044 + -0.0007 × 402 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(5.3744)
= $215.80
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.22% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of June 12, 2026 was $240.87 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.89 (3.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2026
End date: June 12, 2026
a = 5.1151
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0180
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0180) – 1
= 7.47%
April 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 358 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1151 + 0.0008 × 358 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(5.4432)
= $231.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 358 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1151 + 0.0008 × 358 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(5.3711)
= $215.10
June 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1151 + 0.0008 × 410 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(5.4856)
= $241.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1151 + 0.0008 × 410 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(5.4136)
= $224.43
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.69% per annum.
- JNJ price at the close of June 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.