Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 209.18% per annum.
- PFE price at the close of October 5, 2026 was $27.41 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.87 (9.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.41% per annum.
- PFE price at the close of October 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PFE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 23, 2026
End date: September 4, 2026
a = 2.0066
b = 0.0031
s = 0.0201
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 209.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0201) – 1
= 8.38%
June 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 363 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0066 + 0.0031 × 363 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(3.1694)
= $23.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 363 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0066 + 0.0031 × 363 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(3.0889)
= $21.95
September 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0066 + 0.0031 × 436 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(3.3951)
= $29.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0066 + 0.0031 × 436 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(3.3147)
= $27.51
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 209.18% per annum.
- PFE price at the close of October 5, 2026 was $27.41 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.87 (9.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2026
End date: October 5, 2026
a = 3.3905
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0157
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0157) – 1
= 6.48%
August 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3905 + -0.0001 × 420 + 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(3.3700)
= $29.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3905 + -0.0001 × 420 – 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(3.3073)
= $27.31
October 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 467 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3905 + -0.0001 × 467 + 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(3.3642)
= $28.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 467 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3905 + -0.0001 × 467 – 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(3.3014)
= $27.15
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.41% per annum.
- PFE price at the close of October 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.