Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 108.59% per annum.
- GILD price at the close of October 2, 2026 was $144.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.40 (0.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.32% per annum.
- GILD price at the close of October 2, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.14 (0.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GILD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2026
End date: September 30, 2026
a = 4.2070
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0241
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 108.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0241) – 1
= 10.14%
June 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y203)
= Exp(a + b × X203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2070 + 0.0020 × 295 + 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(4.8495)
= $127.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y203)
= Exp(a + b × X203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2070 + 0.0020 × 295 – 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(4.7529)
= $115.92
September 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2070 + 0.0020 × 408 + 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(5.0771)
= $160.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2070 + 0.0020 × 408 – 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(4.9805)
= $145.55
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 108.59% per annum.
- GILD price at the close of October 2, 2026 was $144.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.40 (0.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2026
End date: October 2, 2026
a = 4.7473
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0169
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0169) – 1
= 7.00%
August 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7473 + 0.0006 × 366 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(5.0154)
= $150.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7473 + 0.0006 × 366 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(4.9478)
= $140.86
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7473 + 0.0006 × 410 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(5.0435)
= $155.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7473 + 0.0006 × 410 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(4.9759)
= $144.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.32% per annum.
- GILD price at the close of October 2, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.14 (0.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.