Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 91.44% per annum.
- DHR price at the close of September 22, 2026 was $221.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.87% per annum.
- DHR price at the close of September 22, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.78 (0.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DHR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 1, 2026
End date: September 22, 2026
a = 4.5252
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0336
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 91.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0336) – 1
= 14.38%
May 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y234)
= Exp(a + b × X234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5252 + 0.0018 × 339 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(5.1956)
= $180.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y234)
= Exp(a + b × X234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5252 + 0.0018 × 339 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(5.0612)
= $157.78
September 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y332)
= Exp(a + b × X332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 483 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5252 + 0.0018 × 483 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(5.4518)
= $233.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y332)
= Exp(a + b × X332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 483 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5252 + 0.0018 × 483 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(5.3174)
= $203.85
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 91.44% per annum.
- DHR price at the close of September 22, 2026 was $221.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2026
End date: September 22, 2026
a = 5.7169
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0260
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0260) – 1
= 10.96%
August 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y309)
= Exp(a + b × X309 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7169 + -0.0008 × 449 + 2 × 0.0260)
= Exp(5.4171)
= $225.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y309)
= Exp(a + b × X309 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7169 + -0.0008 × 449 – 2 × 0.0260)
= Exp(5.3131)
= $202.98
September 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y332)
= Exp(a + b × X332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 483 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7169 + -0.0008 × 483 + 2 × 0.0260)
= Exp(5.3905)
= $219.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y332)
= Exp(a + b × X332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 483 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7169 + -0.0008 × 483 – 2 × 0.0260)
= Exp(5.2865)
= $197.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.87% per annum.
- DHR price at the close of September 22, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.78 (0.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.