Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 89.03% per annum.
- DHR price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $230.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.04% per annum.
- DHR price at the close of November 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DHR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 1, 2026
End date: November 6, 2026
a = 4.7082
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0308
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 89.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0308) – 1
= 13.13%
May 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y167)
= Exp(a + b × X167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7082 + 0.0017 × 241 + 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(5.1903)
= $179.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y167)
= Exp(a + b × X167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7082 + 0.0017 × 241 – 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(5.0670)
= $158.69
November 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7082 + 0.0017 × 430 + 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(5.5200)
= $249.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7082 + 0.0017 × 430 – 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(5.3967)
= $220.67
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 89.03% per annum.
- DHR price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $230.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2026
End date: November 6, 2026
a = 5.7334
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0126
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0126) – 1
= 5.19%
October 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7334 + -0.0007 × 414 + 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(5.4763)
= $238.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7334 + -0.0007 × 414 – 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(5.4257)
= $227.17
November 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7334 + -0.0007 × 430 + 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(5.4654)
= $236.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7334 + -0.0007 × 430 – 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(5.4148)
= $224.71
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.04% per annum.
- DHR price at the close of November 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.