Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 173.75% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $706.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 113.43% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of November 4, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 8, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 5.3664
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0313
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 173.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0313) – 1
= 13.32%
May 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y182)
= Exp(a + b × X182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3664 + 0.0028 × 263 + 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(6.1545)
= $470.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y182)
= Exp(a + b × X182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3664 + 0.0028 × 263 – 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(6.0295)
= $415.50
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3664 + 0.0028 × 443 + 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(6.6512)
= $773.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3664 + 0.0028 × 443 – 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(6.5261)
= $682.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 173.75% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $706.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 23, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 5.6411
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0226
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 113.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0226) – 1
= 9.47%
July 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y233)
= Exp(a + b × X233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6411 + 0.0021 × 339 + 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(6.3905)
= $596.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y233)
= Exp(a + b × X233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6411 + 0.0021 × 339 – 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(6.3000)
= $544.57
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6411 + 0.0021 × 443 + 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(6.6065)
= $739.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6411 + 0.0021 × 443 – 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(6.5160)
= $675.89
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 113.43% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of November 4, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.