Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.98% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of July 10, 2026 was $527.05 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $26.41 (5.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 150.31% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of July 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2025
End date: June 23, 2026
a = 6.5964
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0574
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0574) – 1
= 25.82%
October 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y108)
= Exp(a + b × X108 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5964 + -0.0012 × 158 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(6.5249)
= $681.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y108)
= Exp(a + b × X108 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5964 + -0.0012 × 158 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(6.2952)
= $541.97
June 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5964 + -0.0012 × 403 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(6.2359)
= $510.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5964 + -0.0012 × 403 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(6.0062)
= $405.95
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.98% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of July 10, 2026 was $527.05 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $26.41 (5.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 11, 2026
End date: July 10, 2026
a = 5.1905
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0287
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 150.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0287) – 1
= 12.18%
May 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 360 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1905 + 0.0025 × 360 + 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(6.1529)
= $470.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 360 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1905 + 0.0025 × 360 – 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(6.0379)
= $419.03
July 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1905 + 0.0025 × 420 + 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(6.3037)
= $546.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1905 + 0.0025 × 420 – 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(6.1888)
= $487.24
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 150.31% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of July 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.