Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 222.11% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of September 11, 2026 was $609.82 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.53 (0.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.00% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of September 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 11, 2026
End date: September 4, 2026
a = 4.9249
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0285
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 222.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0285) – 1
= 12.10%
May 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 360 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9249 + 0.0032 × 360 + 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(6.1357)
= $462.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 360 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9249 + 0.0032 × 360 – 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(6.0215)
= $412.19
September 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 476 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9249 + 0.0032 × 476 + 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(6.5074)
= $670.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 476 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9249 + 0.0032 × 476 – 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(6.3932)
= $597.79
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 222.11% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of September 11, 2026 was $609.82 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.53 (0.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 20, 2026
End date: September 11, 2026
a = 7.4584
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0103
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0103) – 1
= 4.21%
August 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y316)
= Exp(a + b × X316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 461 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4584 + -0.0022 × 461 + 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(6.4705)
= $645.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y316)
= Exp(a + b × X316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 461 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4584 + -0.0022 × 461 – 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(6.4293)
= $619.72
September 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y331)
= Exp(a + b × X331 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 483 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4584 + -0.0022 × 483 + 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(6.4224)
= $615.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y331)
= Exp(a + b × X331 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 483 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4584 + -0.0022 × 483 – 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(6.3811)
= $590.60
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.00% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of September 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.