Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.81% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of July 31, 2026 was $65.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.86 (15.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 319.17% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of July 31, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BMY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2026
End date: June 26, 2026
a = 4.2335
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0207
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0207) – 1
= 8.64%
February 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y169)
= Exp(a + b × X169 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2335 + -0.0006 × 246 + 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(4.1344)
= $62.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y169)
= Exp(a + b × X169 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2335 + -0.0006 × 246 – 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(4.0515)
= $57.49
June 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 388 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2335 + -0.0006 × 388 + 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(4.0534)
= $57.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 388 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2335 + -0.0006 × 388 – 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(3.9705)
= $53.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.81% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of July 31, 2026 was $65.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.86 (15.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2026
End date: July 31, 2026
a = 2.4924
b = 0.0039
s = 0.0167
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0039) – 1
= 319.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0167) – 1
= 6.92%
June 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y261)
= Exp(a + b × X261 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 379 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4924 + 0.0039 × 379 + 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(4.0139)
= $55.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y261)
= Exp(a + b × X261 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 379 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4924 + 0.0039 × 379 – 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(3.9471)
= $51.78
July 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4924 + 0.0039 × 423 + 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(4.1867)
= $65.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4924 + 0.0039 × 423 – 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(4.1198)
= $61.55
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 319.17% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of July 31, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.