Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.94% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of June 16, 2026 was $55.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.49% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of June 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BMY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2025
End date: May 29, 2026
a = 2.1108
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0597
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0597) – 1
= 26.95%
June 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,004)
= Exp(a + b × X1,004 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,461 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1108 + 0.0011 × 1,461 + 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(3.8516)
= $47.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,004)
= Exp(a + b × X1,004 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,461 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1108 + 0.0011 × 1,461 – 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(3.6129)
= $37.07
May 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1108 + 0.0011 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(4.2356)
= $69.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1108 + 0.0011 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0597)
= Exp(3.9969)
= $54.43
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.94% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of June 16, 2026 was $55.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 5, 2026
End date: June 16, 2026
a = 5.0527
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0196
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0196) – 1
= 8.17%
February 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0527 + -0.0006 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0196)
= Exp(4.1433)
= $63.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0527 + -0.0006 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0196)
= Exp(4.0647)
= $58.25
June 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0527 + -0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0196)
= Exp(4.0699)
= $58.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0527 + -0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0196)
= Exp(3.9914)
= $54.13
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.49% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of June 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.