Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.77% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $61.39 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.45 (4.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.70% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BMY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 18, 2026
End date: October 19, 2026
a = 5.0354
b = -0.0024
s = 0.0177
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -57.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0177) – 1
= 7.35%
August 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y240)
= Exp(a + b × X240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 349 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0354 + -0.0024 × 349 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(4.2466)
= $69.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y240)
= Exp(a + b × X240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 349 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0354 + -0.0024 × 349 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(4.1757)
= $65.09
October 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 411 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0354 + -0.0024 × 411 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(4.1002)
= $60.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 411 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0354 + -0.0024 × 411 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(4.0293)
= $56.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.77% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $61.39 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.45 (4.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 5, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 3.2090
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0205
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 120.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0205) – 1
= 8.56%
October 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2090 + 0.0022 × 397 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(4.1111)
= $61.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2090 + 0.0022 × 397 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(4.0289)
= $56.20
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2090 + 0.0022 × 421 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(4.1631)
= $64.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2090 + 0.0022 × 421 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(4.0810)
= $59.20
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.70% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.