Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 290.44% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of August 14, 2026 was $63.83 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.73 (1.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.63% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of August 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BMY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 16, 2026
End date: August 10, 2026
a = 2.5715
b = 0.0037
s = 0.0174
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0037) – 1
= 290.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0174) – 1
= 7.20%
June 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5715 + 0.0037 × 378 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(4.0169)
= $55.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5715 + 0.0037 × 378 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(3.9473)
= $51.80
August 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y297)
= Exp(a + b × X297 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 433 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5715 + 0.0037 × 433 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(4.2222)
= $68.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y297)
= Exp(a + b × X297 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 433 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5715 + 0.0037 × 433 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(4.1526)
= $63.60
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 290.44% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of August 14, 2026 was $63.83 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.73 (1.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2026
End date: August 14, 2026
a = 4.7619
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0102
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0102) – 1
= 4.17%
July 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7619 + -0.0014 × 422 + 2 × 0.0102)
= Exp(4.1989)
= $66.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7619 + -0.0014 × 422 – 2 × 0.0102)
= Exp(4.1581)
= $63.95
August 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7619 + -0.0014 × 437 + 2 × 0.0102)
= Exp(4.1782)
= $65.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7619 + -0.0014 × 437 – 2 × 0.0102)
= Exp(4.1374)
= $62.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.63% per annum.
- BMY price at the close of August 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.