Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net
Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE:BMY)

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)

Intermediate level


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

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Year Value FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 9.27%
01 FCFE0 24,884 
1 FCFE1 23,862  = 24,884 × (1 + -4.11%) 21,837 
2 FCFE2 22,664  = 23,862 × (1 + -5.02%) 18,981 
3 FCFE3 21,320  = 22,664 × (1 + -5.93%) 16,339 
4 FCFE4 19,860  = 21,320 × (1 + -6.85%) 13,929 
5 FCFE5 18,319  = 19,860 × (1 + -7.76%) 11,758 
5 Terminal value (TV5) 99,212  = 18,319 × (1 + -7.76%) ÷ (9.27%-7.76%) 63,679 
Intrinsic value of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.’s common stock 146,524 
 
Intrinsic value of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.’s common stock (per share) $64.76
Current share price $59.56

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2020-02-24).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Required Rate of Return (r)

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 1.23%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 11.91%
Systematic risk of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.’s common stock βBMY 0.75
 
Required rate of return on Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.’s common stock3 rBMY 9.27%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rBMY = RF + βBMY [E(RM) – RF]
= 1.23% + 0.75 [11.91%1.23%]
= 9.27%


FCFE Growth Rate (g)

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., PRAT model

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Average Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Cash dividends declared 3,035  2,630  2,573  2,557  2,493 
Net earnings attributable to BMS 3,439  4,920  1,007  4,457  1,565 
Revenues 26,145  22,561  20,776  19,427  16,560 
Total assets 129,944  34,986  33,551  33,707  31,748 
Total Bristol-Myers Squibb Company shareholders’ equity 51,598  14,031  11,741  16,177  14,266 
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1 0.12 0.47 -1.56 0.43 -0.59
Profit margin2 13.15% 21.81% 4.85% 22.94% 9.45%
Asset turnover3 0.20 0.64 0.62 0.58 0.52
Financial leverage4 2.52 2.49 2.86 2.08 2.23
Averages
Retention rate -0.23
Profit margin 14.44%
Asset turnover 0.51
Financial leverage 2.44
 
FCFE growth rate (g)5 -4.11%

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2020-02-24), 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-25), 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-13), 10-K (filing date: 2017-02-21), 10-K (filing date: 2016-02-12).

2019 Calculations

1 Retention rate = (Net earnings attributable to BMS – Cash dividends declared) ÷ Net earnings attributable to BMS
= (3,4393,035) ÷ 3,439 = 0.12

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net earnings attributable to BMS ÷ Revenues
= 100 × 3,439 ÷ 26,145 = 13.15%

3 Asset turnover = Revenues ÷ Total assets
= 26,145 ÷ 129,944 = 0.20

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total Bristol-Myers Squibb Company shareholders’ equity
= 129,944 ÷ 51,598 = 2.52

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= -0.23 × 14.44% × 0.51 × 2.44 = -4.11%


FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Equity market value0 × r – FCFE0) ÷ (Equity market value0 + FCFE0)
= 100 × (134,766 × 9.27%24,884) ÷ (134,766 + 24,884) = -7.76%

where:
Equity market value0 = current market value of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.’s common stock (US$ in millions)
FCFE0 = the last year Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.’s free cash flow to equity (US$ in millions)
r = required rate of return on Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.’s common stock


FCFE growth rate (g) forecast

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., H-model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value gt
1 g1 -4.11%
2 g2 -5.02%
3 g3 -5.93%
4 g4 -6.85%
5 and thereafter g5 -7.76%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= -4.11% + (-7.76%-4.11%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = -5.02%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= -4.11% + (-7.76%-4.11%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = -5.93%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= -4.11% + (-7.76%-4.11%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = -6.85%