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Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc


Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Difficulty: Intermediate

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Dividends are the cleanest and most straightforward measure of cash flow because these are clearly cash flows that go directly to the investor.


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., dividends per share (DPS) forecast

USD $

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value DPSt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at hidden
0 DPS01 hidden
1 DPS1 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
2 DPS2 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
3 DPS3 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
4 DPS4 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
5 DPS5 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
5 Terminal value (TV5) hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) ÷ (hiddenhidden) hidden
Intrinsic value of BMS's common stock (per share) $hidden
Current share price $hidden

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-13).

1 DPS0 = Sum of last year dividends per share of BMS's common stock. See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Required Rate of Return (r)

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF hidden
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) hidden
Systematic risk (β) of BMS's common stock βBMY hidden
Required rate of return on BMS's common stock3 rBMY hidden

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

Calculations

2 See Details »

3 rBMY = RF + βBMY [E(RM) – RF]
= hidden + hidden [hiddenhidden]
= hidden


Dividend Growth Rate (g)

Dividend growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Average Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013
Selected Financial Data (USD $ in millions)
Cash dividends hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Net earnings attributable to BMS hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Revenues hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Total assets hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Total Bristol-Myers Squibb Company shareholders' equity hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Ratios
Retention rate1 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Profit margin2 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Asset turnover3 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Financial leverage4 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Averages
Retention rate hidden
Profit margin hidden
Asset turnover hidden
Financial leverage hidden
Dividend growth rate (g)5 hidden

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-13), 10-K (filing date: 2017-02-21), 10-K (filing date: 2016-02-12), 10-K (filing date: 2015-02-13), 10-K (filing date: 2014-02-14).

2017 Calculations

1 Retention rate = (Net earnings attributable to BMS – Cash dividends) ÷ Net earnings attributable to BMS
= (hiddenhidden) ÷ hidden = hidden

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net earnings attributable to BMS ÷ Revenues
= 100 × hidden ÷ hidden = hidden

3 Asset turnover = Revenues ÷ Total assets
= hidden ÷ hidden = hidden

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total Bristol-Myers Squibb Company shareholders' equity
= hidden ÷ hidden = hidden

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= hidden × hidden × hidden × hidden = hidden


Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model

g = 100 × (P0 × rD0) ÷ (P0 + D0)
= 100 × ($hidden × hidden – $hidden) ÷ ($hidden + $hidden) = hidden

where:
P0 = current price of share of BMS's common stock
D0 = last year dividends per share of BMS's common stock
r = required rate of return on BMS's common stock


Dividend growth rate (g) forecast

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., H-model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value gt
1 g1 hidden
2 g2 hidden
3 g3 hidden
4 g4 hidden
5 and thereafter g5 hidden

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by Gordon growth model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden + (hiddenhidden) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden + (hiddenhidden) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden + (hiddenhidden) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden