Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Dividends are the cleanest and most straightforward measure of cash flow because these are clearly cash flows that go directly to the investor.
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Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. pages available for free this week:
- Statement of Comprehensive Income
- Cash Flow Statement
- Common-Size Balance Sheet: Assets
- Analysis of Solvency Ratios
- Analysis of Geographic Areas
- Selected Financial Data since 2005
- Operating Profit Margin since 2005
- Return on Equity (ROE) since 2005
- Price to Operating Profit (P/OP) since 2005
- Price to Book Value (P/BV) since 2005
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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc., dividends per share (DPS) forecast
US$
| Year | Value | DPSt or Terminal value (TVt) | Calculation | Present value at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | DPS01 | |||
| 1 | DPS1 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 2 | DPS2 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 3 | DPS3 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 4 | DPS4 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 5 | DPS5 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 5 | Terminal value (TV5) | = × (1 + ) ÷ ( – ) | ||
| Intrinsic value of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. common stock (per share) | ||||
| Current share price | ||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31).
1 DPS0 = Sum of the last year dividends per share of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. common stock. See details »
Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
Required Rate of Return (r)
| Assumptions | ||
| Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 | RF | |
| Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 | E(RM) | |
| Systematic risk of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. common stock | βTMO | |
| Required rate of return on Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. common stock3 | rTMO | |
1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).
3 rTMO = RF + βTMO [E(RM) – RF]
= + [ – ]
=
Dividend Growth Rate (g)
Dividend growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc., PRAT model
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).
2024 Calculations
1 Retention rate = (Net income attributable to Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. – Dividends declared) ÷ Net income attributable to Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
= ( – ) ÷
=
2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income attributable to Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. ÷ Revenues
= 100 × ÷
=
3 Asset turnover = Revenues ÷ Total assets
= ÷
=
4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. shareholders’ equity
= ÷
=
5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= × × ×
=
Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model
g = 100 × (P0 × r – D0) ÷ (P0 + D0)
= 100 × ( × – ) ÷ ( + )
=
where:
P0 = current price of share of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. common stock
D0 = the last year dividends per share of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. common stock
r = required rate of return on Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. common stock
Dividend growth rate (g) forecast
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc., H-model
| Year | Value | gt |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | g1 | |
| 2 | g2 | |
| 3 | g3 | |
| 4 | g4 | |
| 5 and thereafter | g5 |
where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by Gordon growth model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpolation between g1 and g5
Calculations
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=
g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=
g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=