Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 85.25% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of October 26, 2026 was $286.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.71% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of October 26, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABBV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 18, 2026
End date: October 26, 2026
a = 4.9636
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0366
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 85.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0366) – 1
= 15.76%
March 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y126)
= Exp(a + b × X126 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9636 + 0.0017 × 183 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.3459)
= $209.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y126)
= Exp(a + b × X126 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9636 + 0.0017 × 183 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.1996)
= $181.19
October 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9636 + 0.0017 × 405 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.7209)
= $305.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9636 + 0.0017 × 405 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.5746)
= $263.63
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 85.25% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of October 26, 2026 was $286.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 25, 2026
End date: October 26, 2026
a = 5.2007
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0270
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0270) – 1
= 11.40%
June 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y194)
= Exp(a + b × X194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2007 + 0.0010 × 282 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.5455)
= $256.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y194)
= Exp(a + b × X194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2007 + 0.0010 × 282 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.4375)
= $229.88
October 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2007 + 0.0010 × 405 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.6724)
= $290.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2007 + 0.0010 × 405 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.5644)
= $260.97
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.71% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of October 26, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.