Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.13% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of March 28, 2024 was $182.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.44 (9.93%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 124.19% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of March 28, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.45 (0.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABBV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 27, 2021
End date: December 29, 2023
a = 5.0021
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0572
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0572) – 1
= 25.72%
December 27, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y692)
= Exp(a + b × X692 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,004 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0021 + 0.0000 × 1,004 + 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(5.1129)
= $166.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y692)
= Exp(a + b × X692 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,004 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0021 + 0.0000 × 1,004 – 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(4.8840)
= $132.16
December 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0021 + 0.0000 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(5.1102)
= $165.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0021 + 0.0000 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(4.8813)
= $131.80
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.13% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of March 28, 2024 was $182.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.44 (9.93%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 27, 2023
End date: March 14, 2024
a = 1.2092
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0205
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 124.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0205) – 1
= 8.55%
October 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2092 + 0.0022 × 1,673 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(4.9507)
= $141.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2092 + 0.0022 × 1,673 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(4.8686)
= $130.14
March 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2092 + 0.0022 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(5.2582)
= $192.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2092 + 0.0022 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(5.1761)
= $176.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 124.19% per annum.
- ABBV price at the close of March 28, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.45 (0.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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