Stock Analysis on Net

AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.13% per annum.
  • ABBV price at the close of March 28, 2024 was $182.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.44 (9.93%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 124.19% per annum.
  • ABBV price at the close of March 28, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.45 (0.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABBV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 27, 2021
End date: December 29, 2023

a = 5.0021

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0572

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0572) – 1
= 25.72%

December 27, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y692)
= Exp(a + b × X692 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,004 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0021 + 0.0000 × 1,004 + 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(5.1129)
= $166.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y692)
= Exp(a + b × X692 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,004 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0021 + 0.0000 × 1,004 – 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(4.8840)
= $132.16

December 29, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0021 + 0.0000 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(5.1102)
= $165.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0021 + 0.0000 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(4.8813)
= $131.80

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.13% per annum.
  • ABBV price at the close of March 28, 2024 was $182.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.44 (9.93%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 27, 2023
End date: March 14, 2024

a = 1.2092

b = 0.0022

s = 0.0205

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 124.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0205) – 1
= 8.55%

October 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2092 + 0.0022 × 1,673 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(4.9507)
= $141.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2092 + 0.0022 × 1,673 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(4.8686)
= $130.14

March 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2092 + 0.0022 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(5.2582)
= $192.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2092 + 0.0022 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(5.1761)
= $176.99

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 124.19% per annum.
  • ABBV price at the close of March 28, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.45 (0.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
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