Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.59% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $293.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.89% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FDX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 6.0093
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0349
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0349) – 1
= 14.96%
May 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y193)
= Exp(a + b × X193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0093 + -0.0007 × 280 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(5.8726)
= $355.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y193)
= Exp(a + b × X193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0093 + -0.0007 × 280 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(5.7332)
= $308.96
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0093 + -0.0007 × 427 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(5.7643)
= $318.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0093 + -0.0007 × 427 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(5.6249)
= $277.24
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.59% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $293.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 13, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 6.8020
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0226
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0226) – 1
= 9.48%
August 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 363 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8020 + -0.0027 × 363 + 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.8614)
= $351.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 363 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8020 + -0.0027 × 363 – 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.7708)
= $320.81
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8020 + -0.0027 × 427 + 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.6876)
= $295.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8020 + -0.0027 × 427 – 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.5970)
= $269.62
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.89% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.