Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.98% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 30, 2026 was $313.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 114.63% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 30, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.09 (1.00%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FDX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 5.9902
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0341
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0341) – 1
= 14.60%
May 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y193)
= Exp(a + b × X193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9902 + -0.0007 × 280 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.8680)
= $353.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y193)
= Exp(a + b × X193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9902 + -0.0007 × 280 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.7317)
= $308.50
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9902 + -0.0007 × 440 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.7592)
= $317.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9902 + -0.0007 × 440 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.6229)
= $276.70
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.98% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 30, 2026 was $313.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 24, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 4.7969
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0087
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 114.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0087) – 1
= 3.56%
September 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7969 + 0.0021 × 405 + 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(5.6618)
= $287.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7969 + 0.0021 × 405 – 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(5.6269)
= $277.79
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7969 + 0.0021 × 440 + 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(5.7351)
= $309.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7969 + 0.0021 × 440 – 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(5.7001)
= $298.90
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 114.63% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 30, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.09 (1.00%).