Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.16% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $303.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.87% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FDX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 5.5940
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0380
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0380) – 1
= 16.43%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y117)
= Exp(a + b × X117 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5940 + 0.0005 × 172 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.7527)
= $315.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y117)
= Exp(a + b × X117 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5940 + 0.0005 × 172 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.6006)
= $270.58
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5940 + 0.0005 × 399 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.8617)
= $351.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5940 + 0.0005 × 399 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.7096)
= $301.75
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.16% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $303.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 24, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 7.2670
b = -0.0039
s = 0.0096
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0039) – 1
= -75.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0096) – 1
= 3.90%
August 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y256)
= Exp(a + b × X256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 374 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2670 + -0.0039 × 374 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.8292)
= $340.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y256)
= Exp(a + b × X256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 374 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2670 + -0.0039 × 374 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.7910)
= $327.33
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2670 + -0.0039 × 399 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.7319)
= $308.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2670 + -0.0039 × 399 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.6936)
= $296.95
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.87% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.