Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 79.87% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 2, 2026 was $290.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.48 (0.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.96% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FDX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 24, 2026
End date: October 1, 2026
a = 7.4564
b = -0.0044
s = 0.0133
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0044) – 1
= -79.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0133) – 1
= 5.47%
August 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y256)
= Exp(a + b × X256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 374 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4564 + -0.0044 × 374 + 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(5.8407)
= $344.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y256)
= Exp(a + b × X256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 374 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4564 + -0.0044 × 374 – 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(5.7875)
= $326.18
October 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4564 + -0.0044 × 412 + 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(5.6739)
= $291.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4564 + -0.0044 × 412 – 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(5.6206)
= $276.05
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 79.87% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 2, 2026 was $290.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.48 (0.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 18, 2026
End date: October 2, 2026
a = 6.8712
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0187
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -65.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0187) – 1
= 7.78%
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8712 + -0.0030 × 399 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(5.7305)
= $308.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8712 + -0.0030 × 399 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(5.6556)
= $285.89
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8712 + -0.0030 × 413 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(5.6892)
= $295.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8712 + -0.0030 × 413 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(5.6143)
= $274.31
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.96% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of October 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.