Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 63.46% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of July 29, 2026 was $119.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.81% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of July 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 18, 2023
End date: February 27, 2026
a = 2.5557
b = 0.0013
s = 0.1692
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 63.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1692) – 1
= 96.76%
September 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 780 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5557 + 0.0013 × 780 + 2 × 0.1692)
= Exp(3.9443)
= $51.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 780 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5557 + 0.0013 × 780 – 2 × 0.1692)
= Exp(3.2674)
= $26.24
February 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5557 + 0.0013 × 1,673 + 2 × 0.1692)
= Exp(5.1465)
= $171.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5557 + 0.0013 × 1,673 – 2 × 0.1692)
= Exp(4.4697)
= $87.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 63.46% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of July 29, 2026 was $119.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 16, 2024
End date: June 22, 2026
a = 3.9757
b = 0.0004
s = 0.1356
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1356) – 1
= 72.03%
October 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y808)
= Exp(a + b × X808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9757 + 0.0004 × 1,174 + 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(4.6913)
= $108.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y808)
= Exp(a + b × X808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9757 + 0.0004 × 1,174 – 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(4.1487)
= $63.35
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9757 + 0.0004 × 1,788 + 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(4.9237)
= $137.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9757 + 0.0004 × 1,788 – 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(4.3811)
= $79.93
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.81% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of July 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.