Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 63.07% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of June 12, 2026 was $115.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.05% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of June 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2023
End date: March 2, 2026
a = 2.5026
b = 0.0013
s = 0.1694
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 63.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1694) – 1
= 96.90%
September 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y567)
= Exp(a + b × X567 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5026 + 0.0013 × 822 + 2 × 0.1694)
= Exp(3.9426)
= $51.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y567)
= Exp(a + b × X567 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5026 + 0.0013 × 822 – 2 × 0.1694)
= Exp(3.2651)
= $26.18
March 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5026 + 0.0013 × 1,722 + 2 × 0.1694)
= Exp(5.1484)
= $172.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5026 + 0.0013 × 1,722 – 2 × 0.1694)
= Exp(4.4708)
= $87.43
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 63.07% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of June 12, 2026 was $115.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 17, 2024
End date: June 12, 2026
a = 3.9850
b = 0.0004
s = 0.1357
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1357) – 1
= 72.10%
October 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y842)
= Exp(a + b × X842 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9850 + 0.0004 × 1,221 + 2 × 0.1357)
= Exp(4.6962)
= $109.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y842)
= Exp(a + b × X842 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9850 + 0.0004 × 1,221 – 2 × 0.1357)
= Exp(4.1533)
= $63.65
June 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9850 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1357)
= Exp(4.9134)
= $136.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9850 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1357)
= Exp(4.3706)
= $79.09
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.05% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of June 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.