Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.63% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of October 26, 2026 was $100.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.94% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of October 26, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 24, 2026
End date: October 26, 2026
a = 8.5665
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0441
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -54.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0441) – 1
= 19.31%
June 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5665 + -0.0022 × 1,701 + 2 × 0.0441)
= Exp(4.9717)
= $144.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5665 + -0.0022 × 1,701 – 2 × 0.0441)
= Exp(4.7952)
= $120.92
October 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5665 + -0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0441)
= Exp(4.7033)
= $110.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5665 + -0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0441)
= Exp(4.5267)
= $92.45
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.63% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of October 26, 2026 was $100.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2026
End date: October 26, 2026
a = 13.7198
b = -0.0050
s = 0.0273
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0050) – 1
= -83.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0273) – 1
= 11.52%
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7198 + -0.0050 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.8057)
= $122.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7198 + -0.0050 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.6967)
= $109.58
October 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7198 + -0.0050 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.6303)
= $102.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.7198 + -0.0050 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.5213)
= $91.96
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.94% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of October 26, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.