Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.43% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $70.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.61% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UBER price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 24, 2025
End date: November 11, 2026
a = 5.5318
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0564
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0564) – 1
= 25.33%
June 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y904)
= Exp(a + b × X904 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5318 + -0.0007 × 1,320 + 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(4.6792)
= $107.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y904)
= Exp(a + b × X904 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5318 + -0.0007 × 1,320 – 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(4.4534)
= $85.92
November 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5318 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(4.3098)
= $74.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5318 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(4.0841)
= $59.39
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.43% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $70.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2026
End date: November 11, 2026
a = 4.6493
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0392
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0392) – 1
= 16.96%
February 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,545 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6493 + -0.0002 × 1,545 + 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(4.3927)
= $80.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,545 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6493 + -0.0002 × 1,545 – 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(4.2361)
= $69.13
November 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6493 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(4.3320)
= $76.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6493 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(4.1754)
= $65.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.61% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.