Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.89% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of June 29, 2026 was $75.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.07 (1.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.54% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of June 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UBER price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2025
End date: June 25, 2026
a = 6.3628
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0460
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0460) – 1
= 20.22%
August 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,036)
= Exp(a + b × X1,036 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3628 + -0.0012 × 1,507 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(4.6836)
= $108.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,036)
= Exp(a + b × X1,036 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3628 + -0.0012 × 1,507 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(4.4994)
= $89.96
June 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3628 + -0.0012 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(4.3145)
= $74.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3628 + -0.0012 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(4.1303)
= $62.20
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.89% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of June 29, 2026 was $75.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.07 (1.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2026
End date: June 29, 2026
a = 4.5182
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0313
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0313) – 1
= 13.36%
February 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5182 + -0.0001 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(4.3673)
= $78.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5182 + -0.0001 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(4.2419)
= $69.54
June 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5182 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(4.3488)
= $77.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5182 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(4.2235)
= $68.27
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.54% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of June 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.