Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 110.28% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $69.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 77.16% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of May 3, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UBER price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 10, 2022
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 0.6466
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0882
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 110.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0882) – 1
= 42.31%
October 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y861)
= Exp(a + b × X861 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6466 + 0.0020 × 1,249 + 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(3.3664)
= $28.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y861)
= Exp(a + b × X861 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6466 + 0.0020 × 1,249 – 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(3.0136)
= $20.36
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6466 + 0.0020 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(4.5292)
= $92.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6466 + 0.0020 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(4.1764)
= $65.13
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 110.28% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $69.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 20, 2024
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 11.5740
b = -0.0040
s = 0.0163
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0040) – 1
= -77.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0163) – 1
= 6.75%
March 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5740 + -0.0040 × 1,776 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.4224)
= $83.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5740 + -0.0040 × 1,776 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.3572)
= $78.03
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5740 + -0.0040 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.2444)
= $69.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5740 + -0.0040 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.1792)
= $65.31
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 77.16% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of May 3, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out UBER and 1,499 other stocks on our new website