Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.81% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $69.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.10% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of September 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UBER price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 24, 2025
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 5.8091
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0523
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0523) – 1
= 23.25%
June 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8091 + -0.0009 × 1,366 + 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.6941)
= $109.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8091 + -0.0009 × 1,366 – 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.4850)
= $88.68
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8091 + -0.0009 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.3298)
= $75.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8091 + -0.0009 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.1207)
= $61.60
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.81% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $69.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 4.3008
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0362
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0362) – 1
= 15.56%
February 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,591 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3008 + 0.0000 × 1,591 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(4.3689)
= $78.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,591 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3008 + 0.0000 × 1,591 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(4.2243)
= $68.32
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3008 + 0.0000 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(4.3683)
= $78.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3008 + 0.0000 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(4.2237)
= $68.28
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.10% per annum.
- UBER price at the close of September 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.