Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 245.02% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of October 30, 2026 was $304.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 305.06% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of October 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2026
End date: October 30, 2026
a = 4.1636
b = 0.0034
s = 0.0092
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0034) – 1
= 245.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0092) – 1
= 3.74%
September 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1636 + 0.0034 × 424 + 2 × 0.0092)
= Exp(5.6206)
= $276.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1636 + 0.0034 × 424 – 2 × 0.0092)
= Exp(5.5839)
= $266.11
October 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y314)
= Exp(a + b × X314 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 455 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1636 + 0.0034 × 455 + 2 × 0.0092)
= Exp(5.7258)
= $306.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y314)
= Exp(a + b × X314 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 455 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1636 + 0.0034 × 455 – 2 × 0.0092)
= Exp(5.6891)
= $295.63
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 245.02% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of October 30, 2026 was $304.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 6, 2026
End date: October 30, 2026
a = 3.9674
b = 0.0038
s = 0.0084
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 305.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0084) – 1
= 3.41%
October 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y296)
= Exp(a + b × X296 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9674 + 0.0038 × 431 + 2 × 0.0084)
= Exp(5.6360)
= $280.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y296)
= Exp(a + b × X296 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9674 + 0.0038 × 431 – 2 × 0.0084)
= Exp(5.6024)
= $271.08
October 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y314)
= Exp(a + b × X314 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 455 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9674 + 0.0038 × 455 + 2 × 0.0084)
= Exp(5.7279)
= $307.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y314)
= Exp(a + b × X314 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 455 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9674 + 0.0038 × 455 – 2 × 0.0084)
= Exp(5.6944)
= $297.19
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 305.06% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of October 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.