Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.69% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of July 31, 2026 was $292.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 263.52% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of July 31, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 12, 2026
End date: July 31, 2026
a = 4.9984
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0276
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 72.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0276) – 1
= 11.66%
March 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y217)
= Exp(a + b × X217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9984 + 0.0015 × 316 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.5266)
= $251.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y217)
= Exp(a + b × X217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9984 + 0.0015 × 316 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.4163)
= $225.03
July 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y314)
= Exp(a + b × X314 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9984 + 0.0015 × 457 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.7376)
= $310.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y314)
= Exp(a + b × X314 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9984 + 0.0015 × 457 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.6273)
= $277.91
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.69% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of July 31, 2026 was $292.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2026
End date: July 31, 2026
a = 4.1025
b = 0.0035
s = 0.0227
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0035) – 1
= 263.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0227) – 1
= 9.51%
June 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1025 + 0.0035 × 413 + 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(5.6083)
= $272.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1025 + 0.0035 × 413 – 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(5.5175)
= $249.01
July 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y314)
= Exp(a + b × X314 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1025 + 0.0035 × 457 + 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(5.7639)
= $318.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y314)
= Exp(a + b × X314 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1025 + 0.0035 × 457 – 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(5.6731)
= $290.93
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 263.52% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of July 31, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.