Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 94.81% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $103.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $34.34 (24.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.26% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2025
End date: March 4, 2026
a = 4.1411
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0398
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 94.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0398) – 1
= 17.25%
July 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y69)
= Exp(a + b × X69 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1411 + 0.0018 × 100 + 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(4.4034)
= $81.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y69)
= Exp(a + b × X69 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1411 + 0.0018 × 100 – 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(4.2443)
= $69.70
March 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y218)
= Exp(a + b × X218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1411 + 0.0018 × 317 + 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(4.7999)
= $121.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y218)
= Exp(a + b × X218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1411 + 0.0018 × 317 – 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(4.6407)
= $103.62
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 94.81% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $103.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $34.34 (24.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2025
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 4.3112
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0640
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0640) – 1
= 29.19%
July 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y69)
= Exp(a + b × X69 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3112 + 0.0009 × 100 + 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(4.5300)
= $92.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y69)
= Exp(a + b × X69 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3112 + 0.0009 × 100 – 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(4.2739)
= $71.80
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y325)
= Exp(a + b × X325 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 472 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3112 + 0.0009 × 472 + 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(4.8676)
= $130.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y325)
= Exp(a + b × X325 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 472 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3112 + 0.0009 × 472 – 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(4.6114)
= $100.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.26% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.