Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 906.38% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $111.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,965.39% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 5, 2026
End date: November 5, 2026
a = 1.7051
b = 0.0063
s = 0.0158
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0063) – 1
= 906.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0158) – 1
= 6.54%
October 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7051 + 0.0063 × 444 + 2 × 0.0158)
= Exp(4.5455)
= $94.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7051 + 0.0063 × 444 – 2 × 0.0158)
= Exp(4.4822)
= $88.43
November 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 475 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7051 + 0.0063 × 475 + 2 × 0.0158)
= Exp(4.7416)
= $114.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 475 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7051 + 0.0063 × 475 – 2 × 0.0158)
= Exp(4.6783)
= $107.58
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 906.38% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $111.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 19, 2026
End date: November 5, 2026
a = 0.7841
b = 0.0083
s = 0.0148
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0083) – 1
= 1,965.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0148) – 1
= 6.08%
October 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 458 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7841 + 0.0083 × 458 + 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(4.6130)
= $100.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 458 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7841 + 0.0083 × 458 – 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(4.5539)
= $95.00
November 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 475 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7841 + 0.0083 × 475 + 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(4.7540)
= $116.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 475 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7841 + 0.0083 × 475 – 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(4.6950)
= $109.39
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,965.39% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.