Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.57% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $94.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.23% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of September 21, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.70 (1.76%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 2, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 5.2663
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0267
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0267) – 1
= 11.29%
July 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y240)
= Exp(a + b × X240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 349 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2663 + -0.0016 × 349 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.7728)
= $118.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y240)
= Exp(a + b × X240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 349 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2663 + -0.0016 × 349 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.6658)
= $106.26
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2663 + -0.0016 × 430 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.6458)
= $104.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2663 + -0.0016 × 430 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.5389)
= $93.59
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.57% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $94.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 4.9649
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0187
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0187) – 1
= 7.79%
July 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 375 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9649 + -0.0008 × 375 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.6898)
= $108.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 375 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9649 + -0.0008 × 375 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.6148)
= $100.97
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9649 + -0.0008 × 430 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.6440)
= $103.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9649 + -0.0008 × 430 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.5690)
= $96.45
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.23% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of September 21, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.70 (1.76%).