Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net

United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL)

$24.99

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.

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Economic Profit

United Airlines Holdings Inc., economic profit calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2025 Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2025 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


The financial performance between 2021 and 2025 is characterized by a significant recovery in operational profitability that was ultimately offset by a rising cost of capital and an expanding capital base. While operational earnings showed consistent growth, the ability to generate positive economic profit remained elusive for most of the period, indicating a struggle to create value above the required return on invested capital.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
A strong upward trajectory is evident in NOPAT, which transitioned from a deficit of 797 million USD in 2021 to a peak of 5.34 billion USD by 2025. This progression reflects a substantial recovery in core operational efficiency and profitability over the five-year horizon.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital exhibited a general increase, rising from 8.77% in 2021 to 13.31% in 2025. A notable acceleration occurred between 2023 and 2024, where the rate jumped from 9.74% to 12.25%, significantly increasing the threshold for value creation.
Invested Capital
Invested capital experienced an initial contraction, falling from 52.53 billion USD in 2021 to 41.36 billion USD in 2022. Subsequently, a steady expansion phase followed, with capital reaching 50.21 billion USD by 2025, suggesting a period of strategic reinvestment in the business assets.
Economic Profit Analysis
Economic profit remained negative for the majority of the period, with the exception of 2023, where a positive value of 387 million USD was achieved. Despite the growth in NOPAT, the simultaneous increase in both the cost of capital and the total invested capital led to a reversal into negative economic profit in 2024 and 2025. By the end of 2025, the economic profit declined to -1.34 billion USD, signaling that the operational returns were insufficient to cover the scaled cost of the capital employed.


Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

United Airlines Holdings Inc., NOPAT calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2025 Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021
Net income (loss)
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in frequent flyer deferred revenue2
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents3
Interest expense, net of interest capitalized
Interest expense, operating lease liability4
Adjusted interest expense, net of interest capitalized
Tax benefit of interest expense, net of interest capitalized5
Adjusted interest expense, net of interest capitalized, after taxes6
Interest income
Investment income, before taxes
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income7
Investment income, after taxes8
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in frequent flyer deferred revenue.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income (loss).

4 2025 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

5 2025 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense, net of interest capitalized = Adjusted interest expense, net of interest capitalized × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

6 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income (loss).

7 2025 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

8 Elimination of after taxes investment income.


Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) demonstrates a significant improvement over the observed period. Beginning with a negative value in 2021, NOPAT exhibits consistent growth through 2025. This positive trajectory contrasts with the initial net income performance, indicating a strengthening of core operational profitability relative to tax obligations.

NOPAT Trend
In 2021, NOPAT registered at -797 US$ millions, representing a loss. A substantial increase is then observed in 2022, with NOPAT reaching 2,682 US$ millions. This positive trend continues into 2023, where NOPAT further increases to 4,823 US$ millions. The growth rate moderates slightly in 2024, with NOPAT reaching 5,148 US$ millions, and continues at a similar pace in 2025, reaching 5,340 US$ millions.

The magnitude of the increase in NOPAT from 2021 to 2022 is particularly noteworthy. While net income also improved during this period, the NOPAT increase suggests improvements in operational efficiency and profitability beyond simply accounting for tax effects. The consistent positive NOPAT values from 2022 onwards indicate a sustained ability to generate profit from core operations after accounting for taxes.

Relationship to Net Income
While both net income and NOPAT show improvement over the period, NOPAT consistently exceeds net income in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. This difference suggests the presence of significant non-operating items or accounting adjustments impacting net income. The divergence between the two metrics warrants further investigation to understand the underlying drivers of these differences.

The sustained growth in NOPAT from 2022 to 2025 suggests effective management of operational costs and revenue generation. The incremental increases in NOPAT in the later years, while positive, indicate a potential slowing of growth momentum, which may require further analysis to determine its sustainability.



Cash Operating Taxes

United Airlines Holdings Inc., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2025 Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021
Income tax expense (benefit)
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense, net of interest capitalized
Less: Tax imposed on investment income
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).


The relationship between income tax expense and cash operating taxes demonstrates notable fluctuations over the five-year period. Income tax expense exhibits a significant swing from a benefit in 2021 to positive expenses in subsequent years, while cash operating taxes show a more moderate, generally decreasing trend.

Income Tax Expense
Income tax expense initially registered as a benefit of US$593 million in 2021. This shifted dramatically to an expense of US$253 million in 2022, followed by increases to US$769 million in 2023 and US$1,019 million in 2024. A slight decrease is observed in 2025, with income tax expense reported at US$953 million. This pattern suggests a changing profitability profile and/or tax rate environment.
Cash Operating Taxes
Cash operating taxes began at US$374 million in 2021, decreasing to US$352 million in 2022. A more pronounced decline occurred in 2023, falling to US$274 million, before a modest increase to US$288 million in 2024. The trend continues downward in 2025, with cash operating taxes reported at US$221 million. This indicates a reduction in actual cash outflows related to operations-based taxes.

The divergence between income tax expense and cash operating taxes is substantial. While income tax expense increased significantly from 2021 to 2024, cash operating taxes generally decreased. This discrepancy could be attributed to several factors, including deferred tax assets/liabilities, changes in tax credits utilized, or differences between accounting and tax depreciation methods. The reduction in cash operating taxes, despite rising income tax expense, may positively impact free cash flow.

Relationship between Metrics
In 2021, the income tax benefit significantly exceeded cash operating taxes. As income tax expense became positive, the difference between the two metrics narrowed. By 2025, income tax expense remained considerably higher than cash operating taxes, suggesting a growing reliance on non-cash tax benefits or timing differences in tax payments.

Further investigation into the components of income tax expense and the nature of the differences between income tax expense and cash operating taxes is recommended to fully understand the underlying drivers of these trends.



Invested Capital

United Airlines Holdings Inc., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2025 Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021
Current maturities of long-term debt, finance leases, and other financial liabilities
Long-term debt, finance leases, and other financial liabilities, less current portion
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Stockholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Frequent flyer deferred revenue3
Equity equivalents4
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax5
Adjusted stockholders’ equity
Short-term investments6
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of frequent flyer deferred revenue.

4 Addition of equity equivalents to stockholders’ equity.

5 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

6 Subtraction of short-term investments.


The composition of invested capital at the company exhibits notable fluctuations over the five-year period. Total reported debt & leases generally decreased, while stockholders’ equity consistently increased. These movements have a combined effect on the overall invested capital, which initially decreased before showing signs of stabilization and modest growth.

Total Reported Debt & Leases
A consistent downward trend is observed in total reported debt & leases, decreasing from US$41,063 million in 2021 to US$31,036 million in 2025. The most significant reduction occurred between 2021 and 2022, with a decrease of US$3,763 million. Subsequent annual decreases were more moderate, suggesting a slowing rate of debt reduction.
Stockholders’ Equity
Stockholders’ equity demonstrates a clear upward trajectory throughout the period. Beginning at US$5,029 million in 2021, it increased to US$15,282 million by 2025. The rate of growth accelerated over time, with the largest annual increase occurring between 2023 and 2024 (US$3,351 million). This indicates increasing retained earnings and/or capital contributions.
Invested Capital
Invested capital initially decreased from US$52,534 million in 2021 to US$41,357 million in 2022, primarily driven by the substantial reduction in debt. It then experienced a moderate increase, reaching US$45,532 million in 2023, before continuing to rise to US$50,212 million in 2025. The stabilization and subsequent growth in invested capital suggest a shift in the company’s capital structure, with equity gains partially offsetting the decline in debt. The increase between 2024 and 2025 was relatively small, at US$777 million.

The interplay between decreasing debt and increasing equity suggests a strengthening financial position. While the initial decrease in invested capital might have raised concerns, the subsequent stabilization and modest growth indicate a more balanced and potentially sustainable capital structure.



Cost of Capital

United Airlines Holdings Inc., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt, finance leases, and other financial liabilities3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt, finance leases, and other financial liabilities. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt, finance leases, and other financial liabilities3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt, finance leases, and other financial liabilities. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt, finance leases, and other financial liabilities3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt, finance leases, and other financial liabilities. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt, finance leases, and other financial liabilities3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt, finance leases, and other financial liabilities. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt, finance leases, and other financial liabilities3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt, finance leases, and other financial liabilities. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »



Economic Spread Ratio

United Airlines Holdings Inc., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2025 Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
FedEx Corp.
Uber Technologies Inc.
Union Pacific Corp.
United Parcel Service Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2025 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


The financial performance regarding economic value added demonstrates significant volatility between 2021 and 2025, characterized by a recovery peak in 2023 followed by a return to value destruction.

Economic Profit
A substantial recovery is noted from 2021, where losses reached 5,405 million USD, improving to a positive economic profit of 387 million USD by 2023. However, this trend reversed in 2024 and 2025, with profits falling to -910 million USD and -1,343 million USD, respectively.
Invested Capital
The capital base experienced a contraction in 2022, falling to 41,357 million USD from a 2021 level of 52,534 million USD. Since 2022, a consistent upward trajectory has emerged, with invested capital increasing annually to reach 50,212 million USD by 2025.
Economic Spread Ratio
The spread ratio reflects a trajectory mirrored by economic profit, moving from a deficit of -10.29% in 2021 to a positive 0.85% in 2023. This represents the only period of economic value creation within the analyzed timeframe. The ratio subsequently declined to -1.84% in 2024 and -2.67% in 2025, indicating that the return on invested capital failed to exceed the cost of capital in the final two years.

The overall trend suggests that while a successful pivot toward value creation was achieved by 2023, the subsequent expansion of the invested capital base has not been matched by proportional growth in economic profit, resulting in a recurring negative spread.



Economic Profit Margin

United Airlines Holdings Inc., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2025 Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
 
Operating revenue
Add: Increase (decrease) in frequent flyer deferred revenue
Adjusted operating revenue
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
FedEx Corp.
Uber Technologies Inc.
Union Pacific Corp.
United Parcel Service Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2025 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Adjusted operating revenue
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


The financial trajectory from 2021 to 2025 is characterized by a consistent expansion in revenue coupled with significant volatility in economic value creation, indicating a period of recovery followed by a return to economic value erosion.

Adjusted Operating Revenue Growth
A sustained upward trend in adjusted operating revenue is observed, with values increasing from 24,941 million USD in 2021 to 59,406 million USD in 2025. This represents a continuous growth pattern, signaling a robust increase in the scale of operations over the five-year period.
Economic Profit Fluctuations
Economic profit demonstrated a sharp recovery phase between 2021 and 2023, transitioning from a substantial deficit of 5,405 million USD to a positive value of 387 million USD. This peak in 2023 was followed by a reversal, with economic profit falling back into negative territory to -910 million USD in 2024 and further declining to -1,343 million USD by 2025.
Economic Profit Margin Trends
The economic profit margin closely tracks the volatility of absolute economic profit. A significant improvement occurred from 2021 to 2023, where the margin rose from -21.67% to 0.71%. However, a downward trend emerged in the subsequent two years, with the margin contracting to -1.59% in 2024 and -2.26% in 2025. This suggests that while revenue continued to grow, the cost of capital or operating expenses outpaced these gains in the latter part of the period, preventing the maintenance of positive economic value added.