Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.39% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of February 9, 2024 was $122.47 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.41 (0.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 192.44% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of February 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 29, 2022
End date: February 6, 2024
a = 8.7974
b = -0.0023
s = 0.1351
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -57.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1351) – 1
= 71.69%
July 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,264 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7974 + -0.0023 × 1,264 + 2 × 0.1351)
= Exp(6.1134)
= $451.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,264 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7974 + -0.0023 × 1,264 – 2 × 0.1351)
= Exp(5.5729)
= $263.19
February 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7974 + -0.0023 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.1351)
= Exp(4.8116)
= $122.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7974 + -0.0023 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.1351)
= Exp(4.2711)
= $71.60
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.39% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of February 9, 2024 was $122.47 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.41 (0.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 20, 2023
End date: February 9, 2024
a = -0.5569
b = 0.0029
s = 0.1248
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 192.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1248) – 1
= 64.76%
October 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5569 + 0.0029 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.1248)
= Exp(4.7261)
= $112.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5569 + 0.0029 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.1248)
= Exp(4.2267)
= $68.49
February 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5569 + 0.0029 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1248)
= Exp(5.0553)
= $156.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5569 + 0.0029 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1248)
= Exp(4.5560)
= $95.20
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 192.44% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of February 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Check current ENPH price trends.
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