Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK)

Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

The NOPAT shows significant fluctuations throughout the period. It increased sharply from 41 million in 2019 to a peak of 1197 million in 2020, followed by a decline to 833 million in 2021. Subsequently, it rose again to 970 million in 2022 and further to 1402 million in 2023, before dropping substantially to 493 million in 2024. This indicates volatile profitability with notable peaks in 2020 and 2023.

Cost of Capital

The cost of capital remained relatively stable across the years, fluctuating slightly between 18.37% and 18.99%. The highest cost was recorded in 2021 (18.99%) and the lowest in 2020 (18.37%). The percentage showed minor variations but no clear upward or downward trend is observable, remaining consistently near 18.7% in the latest years.

Invested Capital

Invested capital shows a consistent upward trend from 4412 million in 2019 to 7372 million in 2023, with a slight decrease to 7325 million in 2024. This steady increase over the five-year span suggests ongoing investments and growth in capital deployment until a marginal contraction in the final year.

Economic Profit

Economic profit exhibits considerable volatility and mostly negative performance over the period. It began with a substantial loss of 785 million in 2019, improved to a positive 180 million in 2020, then reverted to losses in 2021 (-254 million) and 2022 (-289 million). A slight positive economic profit of 23 million was achieved in 2023, followed by a sharp reversal to a negative 884 million in 2024. This pattern indicates challenges in consistently generating returns above the cost of capital, with the company frequently experiencing economic losses.

Net Income (Loss)

The net income demonstrates significant fluctuations over the observed periods. Starting from a loss of US$81 million in January 2019, the company experienced a substantial turnaround, achieving a positive net income of US$215 million in January 2020. This upward trend accelerated noticeably in January 2021, reaching a peak of US$1,208 million. Subsequently, net income declined to US$497 million in January 2022 but rebounded to US$823 million in January 2023 and further increased to US$906 million by January 2024. The data suggests a period of recovery and growth following an initial loss, followed by some volatility, with the most recent figures indicating a strengthening profit position.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)

NOPAT shows a rising trend from January 2019 through January 2023, starting at US$41 million and climbing consistently to a peak of US$1,402 million in January 2023. After a low base in 2019, there was a rapid increase to US$1,197 million in 2020, followed by a decrease to US$833 million in January 2021. NOPAT then resumed growth with US$970 million in January 2022 and peaked notably in January 2023. However, in January 2024, NOPAT declined sharply to US$493 million. This pattern indicates periods of strong operational profitability, especially between 2020 and 2023, though the most recent year shows a significant reduction.

The financial data indicates notable fluctuations in both the income tax provision (benefit) and cash operating taxes over the analyzed periods.

Income Tax Provision (Benefit)

The income tax provision demonstrates considerable volatility throughout the periods. Initially, it increased from 38 million USD in 2019 to 80 million USD in 2020, indicating a rising tax expense. However, in 2021, there is a significant benefit recorded, reflected by a negative provision of -662 million USD, which represents a tax benefit rather than an expense. This sharp reversal may suggest extraordinary tax adjustments or recognition of deferred tax assets during that period. Subsequent years show a return to positive provisions, rising from 68 million USD in 2022 to 123 million USD in 2023, and reaching 230 million USD in 2024, indicating increased tax expenses once again. Overall, the income tax provision reflects uneven tax charges with an exceptional benefit in 2021 followed by increasing tax liabilities.

Cash Operating Taxes

Cash operating taxes display a generally upward trend across the years, with some variation in magnitude. Starting at 64 million USD in 2019, cash taxes increased slightly to 82 million USD in 2020. A more substantial rise is seen in 2021 with 130 million USD, despite the negative income tax provision in the same year, suggesting a divergence between cash taxes paid and accounting tax charges. Cash taxes decreased to 100 million USD in 2022 but then surged significantly to 415 million USD in 2023 before declining to 310 million USD in 2024. This pattern indicates increasing cash tax outflows, peaking in 2023, which might reflect higher taxable income or changes in tax payment schedules.

In summary, the data reveal inconsistencies between accounting tax provisions and cash tax payments, particularly highlighted by the negative income tax provision in 2021 juxtaposed with rising cash operating taxes. The overall trend suggests increasing tax-related cash outflows in recent years, and significant fluctuations in tax accounting entries, which could be attributable to changes in tax regulations, one-time adjustments, or differences in timing between tax accruals and payments.

The financial data presents a mixed set of trends over the six-year period ending in January 2024. The following analysis focuses on the reported debt and leases, stockholders’ equity, and invested capital, highlighting significant movements and potential implications.

Total Reported Debt & Leases

The debt and lease obligations experienced fluctuations over the period. Starting at 2,445 million USD in early 2019, the total increased slightly to 2,545 million USD by 2020, followed by a noticeable reduction to 2,105 million USD in 2021. However, debt levels surged again in 2022, reaching 3,060 million USD, which is the highest in the provided timeframe. Subsequently, it declined to 2,666 million USD in 2023 and further to 2,626 million USD in early 2024. The pattern suggests an overall cyclical adjustment in financing strategy, with a peak possibly reflecting increased borrowing or lease arrangements in 2022, and partial deleveraging thereafter.

Stockholders’ Equity (Deficit)

The stockholders’ equity profile shows a significant transformation from a deficit position to a positive equity base. At the start of 2019, equity was negative at -211 million USD, indicating liabilities exceeded assets. This deficit narrowed to -139 million USD in 2020 before turning positive at 966 million USD in 2021. Although there was a slight decrease to 849 million USD in 2022, the trend reversed with equity rising substantially to 1,145 million USD in 2023 and 1,855 million USD in 2024. This improvement demonstrates strengthening financial health, reflecting either retained earnings growth, capital injections, or asset revaluation effectively reducing the deficit and building shareholder value.

Invested Capital

Invested capital steadily increased over the analyzed periods. Commencing at 4,412 million USD in 2019, it rose to 5,535 million USD in 2020, and 5,723 million USD in 2021. Growth accelerated in the following years, reaching 6,835 million USD in 2022, peaking at 7,372 million USD in 2023, and slightly declining to 7,325 million USD in 2024. The general upward movement of invested capital suggests ongoing investments in operations, fixed assets, or other long-term assets, supporting expansion or optimization strategies. The marginal drop in 2024 may reflect asset disposals or adjustments but does not significantly reverse the growth trend.

In summary, the company's financial structure demonstrates evolving leverage with a notable peak in debt in 2022, followed by partial reduction. Simultaneously, a transition from equity deficit to a positive and growing equity base indicates improving solvency and capital adequacy. Continuous increases in invested capital highlight sustained investment activity, supporting business growth and operational capacity enhancement.

Economic Profit Trends

The economic profit exhibits significant volatility across the examined periods. Starting with a considerable loss of -$785 million in early 2019, the figure improved sharply to a positive $180 million by early 2020. However, this improvement was not sustained, as losses recurred in subsequent years with values of -$254 million in 2021, -$289 million in 2022, a minor gain of $23 million in 2023, followed by a substantial decline to -$884 million in 2024. This pattern suggests inconsistent profitability and challenges in generating sustained economic value.

Invested Capital Movement

Invested capital shows a generally upward trend over the six-year span. The capital base increased from $4,412 million in 2019 to a peak of $7,372 million in 2023, indicating ongoing investments or asset accumulation. A slight reduction to $7,325 million is observed in 2024, which may reflect minor divestments, depreciation, or capital adjustments. The expansion of invested capital implies attempts to enhance capacity or operational scale.

Economic Spread Ratio Fluctuations

The economic spread ratio highlights considerable fluctuations throughout the period. Starting from a strongly negative position of -17.8% in 2019, the ratio improved substantially to a positive 3.25% in 2020, aligning with the period of positive economic profit. Nevertheless, the ratio reverted to negative in the subsequent years (-4.45% in 2021, -4.23% in 2022), recovered slightly to a positive 0.31% in 2023, and then declined again sharply to -12.07% in 2024. These fluctuations indicate unstable returns relative to the cost of capital, often failing to generate value over the invested capital.

Overall Insights

The financial data reflects a company struggling to maintain consistent economic profitability despite an increasing base of invested capital. The oscillations between positive and negative economic profit, coupled with volatile economic spread ratios, suggest challenges in achieving efficient capital utilization and generating sustained shareholder value. The sharp downturn in economic profit and spread ratio in 2024 may warrant further investigation into underlying operational or market factors.

The financial data reveals notable fluctuations in several key metrics over the six-year period ending January 31, 2024. These metrics include economic profit, adjusted net revenue, and economic profit margin.

Adjusted Net Revenue

The adjusted net revenue shows an overall increasing trend from 2019 to 2023, starting at $2,706 million and peaking at $5,795 million in 2023. However, there is a decline observed in 2024, with adjusted net revenue decreasing to $5,181 million. The upward trend in revenue from 2019 through 2023 indicates growth, while the drop in 2024 may signal emerging challenges or market conditions affecting sales.

Economic Profit

Economic profit exhibits significant volatility throughout the period. Beginning with a substantial loss of $785 million in 2019, the company achieved a positive economic profit of $180 million in 2020. This positive peak was not sustained in subsequent years, as profit returned to losses in 2021, 2022, and 2024, with values of -$254 million, -$289 million, and -$884 million respectively. A small positive economic profit of $23 million appeared in 2023. The large negative value in 2024 represents the deepest economic loss recorded in this timeframe.

Economic Profit Margin

The economic profit margin percentage follows a pattern consistent with economic profit figures. Initially, the margin was a negative 29.02% in 2019, transitioning into a positive margin of 4.29% in 2020. From 2021 to 2024, the margin returns to negative territory except for a marginally positive 0.39% in 2023. The margin declines sharply to -17.06% in 2024, indicating deteriorated profitability relative to the adjusted net revenue.

In summary, while adjusted net revenue showed growth for most years, economic profit and its margin displayed considerable instability, with positive earnings only briefly experienced in 2020 and marginally in 2023. The sharp decline in economic profit and margin in 2024 suggests increasing cost pressures or decreased operational efficiency despite relatively high revenue levels. The data points to vulnerability in maintaining consistent profitability in recent years.