Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.40% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of June 12, 2026 was $358.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.76% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of June 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2026
End date: June 12, 2026
a = 7.1045
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0164
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0164) – 1
= 6.78%
May 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y248)
= Exp(a + b × X248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 362 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1045 + -0.0031 × 362 + 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(6.0256)
= $413.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y248)
= Exp(a + b × X248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 362 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1045 + -0.0031 × 362 – 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(5.9600)
= $387.60
June 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1045 + -0.0031 × 399 + 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(5.9120)
= $369.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1045 + -0.0031 × 399 – 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(5.8464)
= $345.97
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.40% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of June 12, 2026 was $358.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2026
End date: June 12, 2026
a = 7.3772
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0144
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -74.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0144) – 1
= 5.95%
May 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y253)
= Exp(a + b × X253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 369 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3772 + -0.0038 × 369 + 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(6.0144)
= $409.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y253)
= Exp(a + b × X253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 369 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3772 + -0.0038 × 369 – 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(5.9566)
= $386.29
June 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3772 + -0.0038 × 399 + 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(5.9012)
= $365.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3772 + -0.0038 × 399 – 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(5.8434)
= $344.96
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.76% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of June 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.