Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.50% per annum.
- TTD price at the close of August 5, 2026 was $18.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.32% per annum.
- TTD price at the close of August 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TTD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 12, 2025
End date: August 3, 2026
a = 9.5936
b = -0.0037
s = 0.1127
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -74.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1127) – 1
= 56.98%
May 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y944)
= Exp(a + b × X944 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,375 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5936 + -0.0037 × 1,375 + 2 × 0.1127)
= Exp(4.6717)
= $106.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y944)
= Exp(a + b × X944 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,375 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5936 + -0.0037 × 1,375 – 2 × 0.1127)
= Exp(4.2207)
= $68.08
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5936 + -0.0037 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1127)
= Exp(2.9946)
= $19.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5936 + -0.0037 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1127)
= Exp(2.5436)
= $12.73
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.50% per annum.
- TTD price at the close of August 5, 2026 was $18.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: August 5, 2026
a = 7.0165
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0639
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0639) – 1
= 29.14%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,642 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0165 + -0.0023 × 1,642 + 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(3.4187)
= $30.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,642 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0165 + -0.0023 × 1,642 – 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(3.1629)
= $23.64
August 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0165 + -0.0023 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(3.0035)
= $20.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0165 + -0.0023 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(2.7477)
= $15.61
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.32% per annum.
- TTD price at the close of August 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.