Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.30% per annum.
- TTD price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $17.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.32% per annum.
- TTD price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TTD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 12, 2025
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 9.5509
b = -0.0037
s = 0.1134
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -74.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1134) – 1
= 57.37%
May 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,372 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5509 + -0.0037 × 1,372 + 2 × 0.1134)
= Exp(4.6698)
= $106.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,372 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5509 + -0.0037 × 1,372 – 2 × 0.1134)
= Exp(4.2164)
= $67.79
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5509 + -0.0037 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1134)
= Exp(2.9908)
= $19.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5509 + -0.0037 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1134)
= Exp(2.5374)
= $12.65
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.30% per annum.
- TTD price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $17.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 7.0103
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0637
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0637) – 1
= 29.01%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0103 + -0.0023 × 1,639 + 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(3.4182)
= $30.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0103 + -0.0023 × 1,639 – 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(3.1635)
= $23.65
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0103 + -0.0023 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(3.0006)
= $20.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0103 + -0.0023 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(2.7459)
= $15.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.32% per annum.
- TTD price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.