Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.20% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of October 30, 2026 was $278.22 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $26.71 (8.76%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 91.21% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of October 30, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $22.73 (7.55%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2026
End date: October 28, 2026
a = 6.1623
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0334
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0334) – 1
= 14.31%
April 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y185)
= Exp(a + b × X185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 268 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1623 + -0.0008 × 268 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(6.0061)
= $405.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y185)
= Exp(a + b × X185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 268 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1623 + -0.0008 × 268 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.8724)
= $355.09
October 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1623 + -0.0008 × 449 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.8555)
= $349.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1623 + -0.0008 × 449 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.7218)
= $305.44
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.20% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of October 30, 2026 was $278.22 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $26.71 (8.76%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 12, 2026
End date: October 28, 2026
a = 8.7417
b = -0.0067
s = 0.0152
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0067) – 1
= -91.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0152) – 1
= 6.25%
October 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 433 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7417 + -0.0067 × 433 + 2 × 0.0152)
= Exp(5.8875)
= $360.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 433 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7417 + -0.0067 × 433 – 2 × 0.0152)
= Exp(5.8269)
= $339.29
October 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7417 + -0.0067 × 449 + 2 × 0.0152)
= Exp(5.7809)
= $324.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7417 + -0.0067 × 449 – 2 × 0.0152)
= Exp(5.7203)
= $304.99
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 91.21% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of October 30, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $22.73 (7.55%).