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Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
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Walt Disney Co. pages available for free this week:
- Income Statement
- Balance Sheet: Assets
- Cash Flow Statement
- Common-Size Balance Sheet: Assets
- Analysis of Short-term (Operating) Activity Ratios
- Analysis of Reportable Segments
- Enterprise Value to FCFF (EV/FCFF)
- Selected Financial Data since 2005
- Return on Equity (ROE) since 2005
- Price to Sales (P/S) since 2005
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Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.64% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of June 8, 2023 was $92.53 and was higher than the top border of the primary trend channel by $3.24 (3.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.72% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of June 8, 2023 was inside the secondary trend channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of trend channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of trend channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DIS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Trend channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
February 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of trend channeld:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of trend channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
January 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of trend channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of trend channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Secondary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Trend channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
April 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of trend channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of trend channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
June 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of trend channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of trend channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $