Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.55% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $110.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.81% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DIS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 25, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 4.1250
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0290
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0290) – 1
= 12.30%
June 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 388 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1250 + 0.0011 × 388 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(4.6249)
= $101.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 388 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1250 + 0.0011 × 388 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(4.5089)
= $90.83
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y355)
= Exp(a + b × X355 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 514 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1250 + 0.0011 × 514 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(4.7684)
= $117.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y355)
= Exp(a + b × X355 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 514 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1250 + 0.0011 × 514 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(4.6525)
= $104.84
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.55% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $110.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 6, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 4.4477
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0240
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0240) – 1
= 10.06%
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y296)
= Exp(a + b × X296 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4477 + 0.0005 × 430 + 2 × 0.0240)
= Exp(4.6987)
= $109.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y296)
= Exp(a + b × X296 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4477 + 0.0005 × 430 – 2 × 0.0240)
= Exp(4.6028)
= $99.77
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y355)
= Exp(a + b × X355 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 514 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4477 + 0.0005 × 514 + 2 × 0.0240)
= Exp(4.7384)
= $114.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y355)
= Exp(a + b × X355 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 514 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4477 + 0.0005 × 514 – 2 × 0.0240)
= Exp(4.6425)
= $103.80
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.81% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.