Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.53% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of July 30, 2026 was $96.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.90 (7.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.43% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of July 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DIS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2026
End date: June 10, 2026
a = 5.4618
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0111
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -57.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0111) – 1
= 4.55%
May 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y233)
= Exp(a + b × X233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 338 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4618 + -0.0023 × 338 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.6910)
= $108.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y233)
= Exp(a + b × X233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 338 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4618 + -0.0023 × 338 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.6464)
= $104.21
June 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4618 + -0.0023 × 373 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.6088)
= $100.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4618 + -0.0023 × 373 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.5643)
= $96.00
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.53% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of July 30, 2026 was $96.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.90 (7.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 11, 2026
End date: July 30, 2026
a = 4.9793
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0169
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0169) – 1
= 7.00%
May 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y236)
= Exp(a + b × X236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 343 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9793 + -0.0010 × 343 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(4.6721)
= $106.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y236)
= Exp(a + b × X236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 343 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9793 + -0.0010 × 343 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(4.6044)
= $99.92
July 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9793 + -0.0010 × 423 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(4.5926)
= $98.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9793 + -0.0010 × 423 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(4.5249)
= $92.28
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.43% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of July 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.