Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.34% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of November 14, 2025 was $105.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.71% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of November 14, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.37 (0.35%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DIS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 23, 2022
End date: November 14, 2025
a = 4.3523
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0969
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0969) – 1
= 47.36%
September 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y466)
= Exp(a + b × X466 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 676 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3523 + 0.0002 × 676 + 2 × 0.0969)
= Exp(4.6773)
= $107.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y466)
= Exp(a + b × X466 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 676 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3523 + 0.0002 × 676 – 2 × 0.0969)
= Exp(4.2896)
= $72.94
November 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3523 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0969)
= Exp(4.9000)
= $134.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3523 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0969)
= Exp(4.5123)
= $91.13
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.34% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of November 14, 2025 was $105.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 25, 2025
End date: November 14, 2025
a = 6.0530
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0177
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0177) – 1
= 7.36%
June 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0530 + -0.0007 × 1,682 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(4.8413)
= $126.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0530 + -0.0007 × 1,682 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(4.7704)
= $117.96
November 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0530 + -0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(4.7360)
= $113.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0530 + -0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(4.6651)
= $106.17
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.71% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of November 14, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.37 (0.35%).
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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