Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.37% per annum.
- TTWO price at the close of May 20, 2025 was $237.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 76.31% per annum.
- TTWO price at the close of May 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TTWO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: May 20, 2025
a = 4.1077
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0822
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0822) – 1
= 38.95%
September 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y588)
= Exp(a + b × X588 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 853 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1077 + 0.0007 × 853 + 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(4.8375)
= $126.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y588)
= Exp(a + b × X588 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 853 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1077 + 0.0007 × 853 – 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(4.5086)
= $90.79
May 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1077 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(5.4817)
= $240.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1077 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(5.1528)
= $172.91
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.37% per annum.
- TTWO price at the close of May 20, 2025 was $237.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 17, 2024
End date: May 20, 2025
a = 2.6032
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0432
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 76.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0432) – 1
= 18.87%
July 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,044)
= Exp(a + b × X1,044 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,518 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6032 + 0.0016 × 1,518 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(5.0479)
= $155.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,044)
= Exp(a + b × X1,044 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,518 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6032 + 0.0016 × 1,518 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(4.8750)
= $130.98
May 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6032 + 0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(5.5248)
= $250.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6032 + 0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(5.3520)
= $211.02
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 76.31% per annum.
- TTWO price at the close of May 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.