Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.08% per annum.
- TTWO price at the close of June 12, 2025 was $234.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.65% per annum.
- TTWO price at the close of June 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TTWO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: June 12, 2025
a = 4.1068
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0829
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0829) – 1
= 39.30%
September 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y572)
= Exp(a + b × X572 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 828 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1068 + 0.0007 × 828 + 2 × 0.0829)
= Exp(4.8338)
= $125.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y572)
= Exp(a + b × X572 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 828 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1068 + 0.0007 × 828 – 2 × 0.0829)
= Exp(4.5024)
= $90.23
June 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1068 + 0.0007 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0829)
= Exp(5.5084)
= $246.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1068 + 0.0007 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0829)
= Exp(5.1769)
= $177.14
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.08% per annum.
- TTWO price at the close of June 12, 2025 was $234.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 17, 2024
End date: June 12, 2025
a = 2.6832
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0420
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.30%
July 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,493 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6832 + 0.0015 × 1,493 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(5.0482)
= $155.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,493 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6832 + 0.0015 × 1,493 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.8801)
= $131.65
June 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6832 + 0.0015 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(5.5523)
= $257.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6832 + 0.0015 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(5.3843)
= $217.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.65% per annum.
- TTWO price at the close of June 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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