Stock Analysis on Net

Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ:CMCSA)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.91% per annum.
  • CMCSA price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $43.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.91 (12.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.37% per annum.
  • CMCSA price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMCSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 2, 2022
End date: October 18, 2023

a = 2.2749

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0496

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.91%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0496) – 1
= 21.93%

September 2, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y866)
= Exp(a + b × X866 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2749 + 0.0009 × 1,254 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.5523)
= $34.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y866)
= Exp(a + b × X866 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2749 + 0.0009 × 1,254 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.3540)
= $28.62

October 18, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2749 + 0.0009 × 1,665 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.9385)
= $51.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2749 + 0.0009 × 1,665 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.7402)
= $42.11

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.91% per annum.
  • CMCSA price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $43.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.91 (12.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 20, 2023
End date: March 27, 2024

a = 4.1831

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0316

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.37%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0316) – 1
= 13.49%

July 20, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1831 + -0.0002 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.8691)
= $47.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1831 + -0.0002 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.7425)
= $42.20

March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1831 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.8089)
= $45.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1831 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.6824)
= $39.74

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.37% per annum.
  • CMCSA price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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