Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.05% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of August 11, 2026 was $25.65 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.30 (14.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.36% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of August 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMCSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2026
End date: July 9, 2026
a = 4.0176
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0344
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0344) – 1
= 14.76%
February 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y170)
= Exp(a + b × X170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0176 + -0.0023 × 247 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(3.5301)
= $34.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y170)
= Exp(a + b × X170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0176 + -0.0023 × 247 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(3.3924)
= $29.74
July 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 402 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0176 + -0.0023 × 402 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(3.1809)
= $24.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 402 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0176 + -0.0023 × 402 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(3.0433)
= $20.97
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.05% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of August 11, 2026 was $25.65 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.30 (14.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 3, 2026
End date: August 11, 2026
a = 2.7728
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0318
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0318) – 1
= 13.57%
June 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7728 + 0.0010 × 366 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(3.1906)
= $24.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7728 + 0.0010 × 366 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(3.0634)
= $21.40
August 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7728 + 0.0010 × 435 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(3.2574)
= $25.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7728 + 0.0010 × 435 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(3.1301)
= $22.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.36% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of August 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.