Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.16% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $24.39 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.02 (25.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.12% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of November 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMCSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 29, 2026
End date: July 27, 2026
a = 3.7165
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0399
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0399) – 1
= 17.29%
January 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y99)
= Exp(a + b × X99 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7165 + -0.0020 × 143 + 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(3.5155)
= $33.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y99)
= Exp(a + b × X99 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7165 + -0.0020 × 143 – 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(3.3560)
= $28.67
July 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y221)
= Exp(a + b × X221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 322 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7165 + -0.0020 × 322 + 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(3.1640)
= $23.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y221)
= Exp(a + b × X221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 322 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7165 + -0.0020 × 322 – 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(3.0045)
= $20.18
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.16% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $24.39 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.02 (25.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2026
End date: September 15, 2026
a = 3.0095
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0501
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0501) – 1
= 22.20%
May 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y165)
= Exp(a + b × X165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0095 + 0.0006 × 239 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(3.2459)
= $25.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y165)
= Exp(a + b × X165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0095 + 0.0006 × 239 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(3.0454)
= $21.02
September 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y256)
= Exp(a + b × X256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 372 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0095 + 0.0006 × 372 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(3.3217)
= $27.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y256)
= Exp(a + b × X256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 372 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0095 + 0.0006 × 372 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(3.1212)
= $22.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.12% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of November 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.