Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.91% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $43.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.91 (12.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.37% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMCSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 2, 2022
End date: October 18, 2023
a = 2.2749
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0496
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0496) – 1
= 21.93%
September 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y866)
= Exp(a + b × X866 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2749 + 0.0009 × 1,254 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.5523)
= $34.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y866)
= Exp(a + b × X866 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2749 + 0.0009 × 1,254 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.3540)
= $28.62
October 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2749 + 0.0009 × 1,665 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.9385)
= $51.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2749 + 0.0009 × 1,665 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.7402)
= $42.11
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.91% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $43.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.91 (12.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 20, 2023
End date: March 27, 2024
a = 4.1831
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0316
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0316) – 1
= 13.49%
July 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1831 + -0.0002 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.8691)
= $47.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1831 + -0.0002 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.7425)
= $42.20
March 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1831 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.8089)
= $45.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1831 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(3.6824)
= $39.74
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.37% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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