Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 94.62% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of September 24, 2026 was $22.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.32% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of September 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMCSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 28, 2026
End date: September 24, 2026
a = 6.9389
b = -0.0080
s = 0.0201
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0080) – 1
= -94.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0201) – 1
= 8.36%
August 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9389 + -0.0080 × 452 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(3.3605)
= $28.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9389 + -0.0080 × 452 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(3.2803)
= $26.58
September 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9389 + -0.0080 × 479 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(3.1444)
= $23.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9389 + -0.0080 × 479 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(3.0641)
= $21.42
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 94.62% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of September 24, 2026 was $22.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 2, 2026
End date: September 24, 2026
a = 7.4317
b = -0.0090
s = 0.0184
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0090) – 1
= -96.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0184) – 1
= 7.64%
September 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4317 + -0.0090 × 457 + 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(3.3327)
= $28.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4317 + -0.0090 × 457 – 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(3.2591)
= $26.03
September 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4317 + -0.0090 × 479 + 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(3.1337)
= $22.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4317 + -0.0090 × 479 – 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(3.0600)
= $21.33
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.32% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of September 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.