Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 172.15% per annum.
- META price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $493.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 114.97% per annum.
- META price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of META price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2022
End date: March 27, 2024
a = 1.2281
b = 0.0027
s = 0.1252
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 172.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1252) – 1
= 64.98%
September 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y881)
= Exp(a + b × X881 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2281 + 0.0027 × 1,278 + 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(4.9840)
= $146.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y881)
= Exp(a + b × X881 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2281 + 0.0027 × 1,278 – 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(4.4834)
= $88.53
March 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2281 + 0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(6.4872)
= $656.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2281 + 0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(5.9865)
= $398.03
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 172.15% per annum.
- META price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $493.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2023
End date: March 27, 2024
a = 2.3140
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0778
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 114.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0778) – 1
= 36.51%
March 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3140 + 0.0021 × 1,448 + 2 × 0.0778)
= Exp(5.5058)
= $246.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3140 + 0.0021 × 1,448 – 2 × 0.0778)
= Exp(5.1946)
= $180.29
March 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3140 + 0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0778)
= Exp(6.2984)
= $543.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3140 + 0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0778)
= Exp(5.9871)
= $398.27
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 114.97% per annum.
- META price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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