Stock Analysis on Net

Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 172.15% per annum.
  • META price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $493.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 114.97% per annum.
  • META price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of META price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 26, 2022
End date: March 27, 2024

a = 1.2281

b = 0.0027

s = 0.1252

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 172.15%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1252) – 1
= 64.98%

September 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y881)
= Exp(a + b × X881 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2281 + 0.0027 × 1,278 + 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(4.9840)
= $146.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y881)
= Exp(a + b × X881 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2281 + 0.0027 × 1,278 – 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(4.4834)
= $88.53

March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2281 + 0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(6.4872)
= $656.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2281 + 0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(5.9865)
= $398.03

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 172.15% per annum.
  • META price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $493.86 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 15, 2023
End date: March 27, 2024

a = 2.3140

b = 0.0021

s = 0.0778

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 114.97%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0778) – 1
= 36.51%

March 15, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3140 + 0.0021 × 1,448 + 2 × 0.0778)
= Exp(5.5058)
= $246.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3140 + 0.0021 × 1,448 – 2 × 0.0778)
= Exp(5.1946)
= $180.29

March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3140 + 0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0778)
= Exp(6.2984)
= $543.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3140 + 0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0778)
= Exp(5.9871)
= $398.27

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 114.97% per annum.
  • META price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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