Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 98.94% per annum.
- META price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $605.08 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $21.01 (3.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.65% per annum.
- META price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of META price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 12, 2026
End date: October 30, 2026
a = 11.8091
b = -0.0125
s = 0.0197
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0125) – 1
= -98.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0197) – 1
= 8.22%
October 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 416 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8091 + -0.0125 × 416 + 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(6.6689)
= $787.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 416 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8091 + -0.0125 × 416 – 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(6.5899)
= $727.71
October 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 434 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8091 + -0.0125 × 434 + 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(6.4447)
= $629.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 434 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8091 + -0.0125 × 434 – 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(6.3658)
= $581.60
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 98.94% per annum.
- META price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $605.08 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $21.01 (3.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 22, 2026
End date: November 5, 2026
a = 7.8903
b = -0.0034
s = 0.0163
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0034) – 1
= -70.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0163) – 1
= 6.74%
October 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 426 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8903 + -0.0034 × 426 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(6.4923)
= $660.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 426 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8903 + -0.0034 × 426 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(6.4270)
= $618.32
November 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8903 + -0.0034 × 440 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(6.4453)
= $629.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8903 + -0.0034 × 440 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(6.3800)
= $589.92
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.65% per annum.
- META price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.