Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.55% per annum.
- META price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $563.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.87% per annum.
- META price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of META price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 14, 2026
End date: June 22, 2026
a = 7.2523
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0312
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0312) – 1
= 13.31%
April 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2523 + -0.0023 × 328 + 2 × 0.0312)
= Exp(6.5656)
= $710.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2523 + -0.0023 × 328 – 2 × 0.0312)
= Exp(6.4406)
= $626.81
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2523 + -0.0023 × 397 + 2 × 0.0312)
= Exp(6.4080)
= $606.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2523 + -0.0023 × 397 – 2 × 0.0312)
= Exp(6.2830)
= $535.42
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.55% per annum.
- META price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $563.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2026
End date: June 22, 2026
a = 6.8502
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0265
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0265) – 1
= 11.18%
April 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y236)
= Exp(a + b × X236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 344 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8502 + -0.0012 × 344 + 2 × 0.0265)
= Exp(6.4844)
= $654.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y236)
= Exp(a + b × X236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 344 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8502 + -0.0012 × 344 – 2 × 0.0265)
= Exp(6.3784)
= $589.00
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8502 + -0.0012 × 397 + 2 × 0.0265)
= Exp(6.4199)
= $613.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8502 + -0.0012 × 397 – 2 × 0.0265)
= Exp(6.3139)
= $552.20
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.87% per annum.
- META price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.