Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1,525.02% per annum.
- META price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $665.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,501.16% per annum.
- META price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of META price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 18, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 2.8629
b = 0.0076
s = 0.0161
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0076) – 1
= 1,525.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0161) – 1
= 6.67%
August 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y308)
= Exp(a + b × X308 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8629 + 0.0076 × 448 + 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(6.3172)
= $554.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y308)
= Exp(a + b × X308 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8629 + 0.0076 × 448 – 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(6.2527)
= $519.41
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8629 + 0.0076 × 479 + 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(6.5540)
= $702.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8629 + 0.0076 × 479 – 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(6.4895)
= $658.19
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1,525.02% per annum.
- META price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $665.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 2.2546
b = 0.0089
s = 0.0183
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0089) – 1
= 2,501.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0183) – 1
= 7.60%
August 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 461 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2546 + 0.0089 × 461 + 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(6.4068)
= $605.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 461 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2546 + 0.0089 × 461 – 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(6.3335)
= $563.14
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2546 + 0.0089 × 479 + 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(6.5675)
= $711.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2546 + 0.0089 × 479 – 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(6.4942)
= $661.32
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,501.16% per annum.
- META price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.