Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 97.16% per annum.
- META price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $589.90 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $27.98 (4.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.70% per annum.
- META price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of META price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 10, 2026
End date: July 31, 2026
a = 10.5325
b = -0.0098
s = 0.0265
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0098) – 1
= -97.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0265) – 1
= 11.17%
July 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5325 + -0.0098 × 409 + 2 × 0.0265)
= Exp(6.5948)
= $731.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5325 + -0.0098 × 409 – 2 × 0.0265)
= Exp(6.4889)
= $657.79
July 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y296)
= Exp(a + b × X296 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5325 + -0.0098 × 430 + 2 × 0.0265)
= Exp(6.3899)
= $595.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y296)
= Exp(a + b × X296 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5325 + -0.0098 × 430 – 2 × 0.0265)
= Exp(6.2840)
= $535.92
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 97.16% per annum.
- META price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $589.90 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $27.98 (4.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 23, 2026
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 6.9648
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0348
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0348) – 1
= 14.93%
July 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9648 + -0.0014 × 422 + 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(6.4496)
= $632.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9648 + -0.0014 × 422 – 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(6.3105)
= $550.30
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9648 + -0.0014 × 436 + 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(6.4302)
= $620.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9648 + -0.0014 × 436 – 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(6.2911)
= $539.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.70% per annum.
- META price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.