Stock Analysis on Net

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.68% per annum.
  • NFLX price at the close of March 28, 2024 was $607.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 189.57% per annum.
  • NFLX price at the close of March 28, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NFLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 21, 2022
End date: March 28, 2024

a = 3.4288

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0952

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 80.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0952) – 1
= 46.34%

April 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y772)
= Exp(a + b × X772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4288 + 0.0016 × 1,119 + 2 × 0.0952)
= Exp(5.4327)
= $228.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y772)
= Exp(a + b × X772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4288 + 0.0016 × 1,119 – 2 × 0.0952)
= Exp(5.0520)
= $156.33

March 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4288 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0952)
= Exp(6.5786)
= $719.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4288 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0952)
= Exp(6.1978)
= $491.67

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.68% per annum.
  • NFLX price at the close of March 28, 2024 was $607.33 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 20, 2023
End date: March 28, 2024

a = 1.1426

b = 0.0029

s = 0.0426

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 189.57%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0426) – 1
= 18.57%

September 20, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,636 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1426 + 0.0029 × 1,636 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(5.9934)
= $400.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,636 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1426 + 0.0029 × 1,636 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(5.8231)
= $338.01

March 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1426 + 0.0029 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(6.5468)
= $697.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1426 + 0.0029 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(6.3766)
= $587.90

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 189.57% per annum.
  • NFLX price at the close of March 28, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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