Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.66% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $63.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.87% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of November 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NFLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2025
End date: November 6, 2026
a = 6.4932
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0767
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -36.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0767) – 1
= 35.88%
May 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4932 + -0.0013 × 1,284 + 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(5.0402)
= $154.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4932 + -0.0013 × 1,284 – 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.7335)
= $113.70
November 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4932 + -0.0013 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.3646)
= $78.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4932 + -0.0013 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.0580)
= $57.86
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.66% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $63.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2026
End date: November 6, 2026
a = 10.4792
b = -0.0035
s = 0.0314
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0035) – 1
= -71.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0314) – 1
= 13.37%
August 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4792 + -0.0035 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(4.4782)
= $88.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4792 + -0.0035 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(4.3527)
= $77.69
November 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4792 + -0.0035 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(4.2036)
= $66.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4792 + -0.0035 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(4.0782)
= $59.04
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.87% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of November 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.