Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.85% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $73.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.74% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NFLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2025
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 6.4999
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0789
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0789) – 1
= 37.11%
May 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y915)
= Exp(a + b × X915 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,331 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4999 + -0.0012 × 1,331 + 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(5.0386)
= $154.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y915)
= Exp(a + b × X915 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,331 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4999 + -0.0012 × 1,331 – 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(4.7230)
= $112.50
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4999 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(4.4377)
= $84.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4999 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(4.1220)
= $61.69
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.85% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $73.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 22, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 2.4520
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0421
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 46.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0421) – 1
= 18.36%
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4520 + 0.0011 × 1,734 + 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(4.3580)
= $78.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4520 + 0.0011 × 1,734 – 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(4.1895)
= $65.99
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4520 + 0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(4.4537)
= $85.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4520 + 0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(4.2851)
= $72.61
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.74% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.