Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.09% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $72.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.94% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NFLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2025
End date: June 22, 2026
a = 6.5608
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0799
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0799) – 1
= 37.63%
May 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5608 + -0.0012 × 1,422 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(5.0371)
= $154.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5608 + -0.0012 × 1,422 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.7177)
= $111.91
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5608 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.5601)
= $95.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5608 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.2407)
= $69.45
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.09% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $72.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 6, 2026
End date: June 22, 2026
a = 10.8817
b = -0.0036
s = 0.0325
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0036) – 1
= -72.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0325) – 1
= 13.87%
April 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8817 + -0.0036 × 1,748 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.6870)
= $108.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8817 + -0.0036 × 1,748 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.5571)
= $95.31
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8817 + -0.0036 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.4112)
= $82.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8817 + -0.0036 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.2814)
= $72.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.94% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.