Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.03% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $70.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.16% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NFLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2025
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 6.4794
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0770
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0770) – 1
= 36.08%
May 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y897)
= Exp(a + b × X897 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4794 + -0.0012 × 1,305 + 2 × 0.0770)
= Exp(5.0361)
= $153.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y897)
= Exp(a + b × X897 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4794 + -0.0012 × 1,305 – 2 × 0.0770)
= Exp(4.7280)
= $113.07
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4794 + -0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0770)
= Exp(4.4008)
= $81.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4794 + -0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0770)
= Exp(4.0928)
= $59.91
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.03% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $70.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 10.2635
b = -0.0033
s = 0.0312
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0033) – 1
= -70.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0312) – 1
= 13.29%
August 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,766 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2635 + -0.0033 × 1,766 + 2 × 0.0312)
= Exp(4.4743)
= $87.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,766 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2635 + -0.0033 × 1,766 – 2 × 0.0312)
= Exp(4.3495)
= $77.44
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2635 + -0.0033 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0312)
= Exp(4.2821)
= $72.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2635 + -0.0033 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0312)
= Exp(4.1573)
= $63.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.16% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.