Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.68% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of March 28, 2024 was $607.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 189.57% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of March 28, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NFLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2022
End date: March 28, 2024
a = 3.4288
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0952
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 80.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0952) – 1
= 46.34%
April 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y772)
= Exp(a + b × X772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4288 + 0.0016 × 1,119 + 2 × 0.0952)
= Exp(5.4327)
= $228.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y772)
= Exp(a + b × X772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4288 + 0.0016 × 1,119 – 2 × 0.0952)
= Exp(5.0520)
= $156.33
March 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4288 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0952)
= Exp(6.5786)
= $719.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4288 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0952)
= Exp(6.1978)
= $491.67
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.68% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of March 28, 2024 was $607.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2023
End date: March 28, 2024
a = 1.1426
b = 0.0029
s = 0.0426
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 189.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0426) – 1
= 18.57%
September 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,636 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1426 + 0.0029 × 1,636 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(5.9934)
= $400.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,636 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1426 + 0.0029 × 1,636 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(5.8231)
= $338.01
March 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1426 + 0.0029 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(6.5468)
= $697.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1426 + 0.0029 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(6.3766)
= $587.90
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 189.57% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of March 28, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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