Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net
Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX)

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)

Intermediate level

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is generally described as cash flows available to the equity holder after payments to debt holders and after allowing for expenditures to maintain the company’s asset base.


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Netflix Inc., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast

US$ in thousands, except per share data

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Year Value FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 17.00%
01 FCFE0 1,292,815
1 FCFE1 1,495,390 = 1,292,815 × (1 + 15.67%) 1,278,061
2 FCFE2 1,732,528 = 1,495,390 × (1 + 15.86%) 1,265,535
3 FCFE3 2,010,537 = 1,732,528 × (1 + 16.05%) 1,255,171
4 FCFE4 2,336,949 = 2,010,537 × (1 + 16.24%) 1,246,915
5 FCFE5 2,720,759 = 2,336,949 × (1 + 16.42%) 1,240,723
5 Terminal value (TV5) 545,160,101 = 2,720,759 × (1 + 16.42%) ÷ (17.00%16.42%) 248,604,451
Intrinsic value of Netflix Inc.’s common stock 254,890,857
 
Intrinsic value of Netflix Inc.’s common stock (per share) $576.94
Current share price $586.34

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2020-01-29).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Required Rate of Return (r)

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 1.65%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 12.12%
Systematic risk of Netflix Inc.’s common stock βNFLX 1.47
 
Required rate of return on Netflix Inc.’s common stock3 rNFLX 17.00%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rNFLX = RF + βNFLX [E(RM) – RF]
= 1.65% + 1.47 [12.12%1.65%]
= 17.00%


FCFE Growth Rate (g)

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Netflix Inc., PRAT model

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Average Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Net income 1,866,916  1,211,242  558,929  186,678  122,641 
Revenues 20,156,447  15,794,341  11,692,713  8,830,669  6,779,511 
Total assets 33,975,712  25,974,400  19,012,742  13,586,610  10,202,871 
Stockholders’ equity 7,582,157  5,238,765  3,581,956  2,679,800  2,223,426 
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Profit margin2 9.26% 7.67% 4.78% 2.11% 1.81%
Asset turnover3 0.59 0.61 0.61 0.65 0.66
Financial leverage4 4.48 4.96 5.31 5.07 4.59
Averages
Retention rate 1.00
Profit margin 5.13%
Asset turnover 0.63
Financial leverage 4.88
 
FCFE growth rate (g)5 15.67%

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2020-01-29), 10-K (filing date: 2019-01-29), 10-K (filing date: 2018-01-29), 10-K (filing date: 2017-01-27), 10-K (filing date: 2016-01-28).

2019 Calculations

1 Company does not pay dividends

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income ÷ Revenues
= 100 × 1,866,916 ÷ 20,156,447
= 9.26%

3 Asset turnover = Revenues ÷ Total assets
= 20,156,447 ÷ 33,975,712
= 0.59

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Stockholders’ equity
= 33,975,712 ÷ 7,582,157
= 4.48

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 1.00 × 5.13% × 0.63 × 4.88
= 15.67%


FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Equity market value0 × r – FCFE0) ÷ (Equity market value0 + FCFE0)
= 100 × (259,042,085 × 17.00%1,292,815) ÷ (259,042,085 + 1,292,815)
= 16.42%

where:
Equity market value0 = current market value of Netflix Inc.’s common stock (US$ in thousands)
FCFE0 = the last year Netflix Inc.’s free cash flow to equity (US$ in thousands)
r = required rate of return on Netflix Inc.’s common stock


FCFE growth rate (g) forecast

Netflix Inc., H-model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value gt
1 g1 15.67%
2 g2 15.86%
3 g3 16.05%
4 g4 16.24%
5 and thereafter g5 16.42%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 15.67% + (16.42%15.67%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 15.86%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 15.67% + (16.42%15.67%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 16.05%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 15.67% + (16.42%15.67%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 16.24%