In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is generally described as cash flows available to the equity holder after payments to debt holders and after allowing for expenditures to maintain the company asset base.
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Alphabet Inc. pages available for free this week:
- Balance Sheet: Assets
- Analysis of Short-term (Operating) Activity Ratios
- Analysis of Liquidity Ratios
- DuPont Analysis: Disaggregation of ROE, ROA, and Net Profit Margin
- Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)
- Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)
- Total Asset Turnover since 2005
- Operating Profit Margin since 2005
- Analysis of Goodwill and Intangible Assets
- Adjusted Financial Ratios
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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)
Year | Value | FCFE_{t} or Terminal value (TV_{t}) | Calculation | Present value at |
---|---|---|---|---|
0^{1} | FCFE_{0} | |||
1 | FCFE_{1} | = × (1 + ) | ||
2 | FCFE_{2} | = × (1 + ) | ||
3 | FCFE_{3} | = × (1 + ) | ||
4 | FCFE_{4} | = × (1 + ) | ||
5 | FCFE_{5} | = × (1 + ) | ||
5 | Terminal value (TV_{5}) | = × (1 + ) ÷ ( – ) | ||
Intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. common stock | ||||
Intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. common stock (per share) | ||||
Current share price |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).
^{1} See details »
Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
Required Rate of Return (r)
Assumptions | ||
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite^{1} | R_{F} | |
Expected rate of return on market portfolio^{2} | E(R_{M}) | |
Systematic risk of Alphabet Inc. common stock | β_{GOOG} | |
Required rate of return on Alphabet Inc. common stock^{3} | r_{GOOG} |
^{1} Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).
^{2} See details »
^{3} r_{GOOG} = R_{F} + β_{GOOG} [E(R_{M}) – R_{F}]
= + [ – ]
=
FCFE Growth Rate (g)
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31).
2020 Calculations
^{1} Company does not pay dividends
^{2} Profit margin = 100 × Net income ÷ Revenues
= 100 × ÷
=
^{3} Asset turnover = Revenues ÷ Total assets
= ÷
=
^{4} Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Stockholders’ equity
= ÷
=
^{5} g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= × × ×
=
FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model
g = 100 × (Equity market value_{0} × r – FCFE_{0}) ÷ (Equity market value_{0} + FCFE_{0})
= 100 × ( × – ) ÷ ( + )
=
where:
Equity market value_{0} = current market value of Alphabet Inc. common stock (US$ in millions)
FCFE_{0} = the last year Alphabet Inc. free cash flow to equity (US$ in millions)
r = required rate of return on Alphabet Inc. common stock
Year | Value | g_{t} |
---|---|---|
1 | g_{1} | |
2 | g_{2} | |
3 | g_{3} | |
4 | g_{4} | |
5 and thereafter | g_{5} |
where:
g_{1} is implied by PRAT model
g_{5} is implied by single-stage model
g_{2}, g_{3} and g_{4} are calculated using linear interpoltion between g_{1} and g_{5}
Calculations
g_{2} = g_{1} + (g_{5} – g_{1}) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=
g_{3} = g_{1} + (g_{5} – g_{1}) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=
g_{4} = g_{1} + (g_{5} – g_{1}) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=