Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is generally described as cash flows available to the equity holder after payments to debt holders and after allowing for expenditures to maintain the company asset base.
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Walt Disney Co. pages available for free this week:
- Balance Sheet: Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity
- Common-Size Balance Sheet: Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity
- Analysis of Short-term (Operating) Activity Ratios
- DuPont Analysis: Disaggregation of ROE, ROA, and Net Profit Margin
- Analysis of Geographic Areas
- Enterprise Value to FCFF (EV/FCFF)
- Return on Assets (ROA) since 2005
- Price to Earnings (P/E) since 2005
- Analysis of Debt
- Aggregate Accruals
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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)
Walt Disney Co., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast
US$ in millions, except per share data
| Year | Value | FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) | Calculation | Present value at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | FCFE0 | |||
| 1 | FCFE1 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 2 | FCFE2 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 3 | FCFE3 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 4 | FCFE4 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 5 | FCFE5 | = × (1 + ) | ||
| 5 | Terminal value (TV5) | = × (1 + ) ÷ ( – ) | ||
| Intrinsic value of Walt Disney Co. common stock | ||||
| Intrinsic value of Walt Disney Co. common stock (per share) | ||||
| Current share price | ||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-10-02).
Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
Required Rate of Return (r)
| Assumptions | ||
| Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 | RF | |
| Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 | E(RM) | |
| Systematic risk of Walt Disney Co. common stock | βDIS | |
| Required rate of return on Walt Disney Co. common stock3 | rDIS | |
1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).
3 rDIS = RF + βDIS [E(RM) – RF]
= + [ – ]
=
FCFE Growth Rate (g)
FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model
Walt Disney Co., PRAT model
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-10-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-10-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-09-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-09-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-10-01).
2021 Calculations
1 Retention rate = (Net income (loss) attributable to The Walt Disney Company (Disney) – Dividends) ÷ Net income (loss) attributable to The Walt Disney Company (Disney)
= ( – ) ÷
=
2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income (loss) attributable to The Walt Disney Company (Disney) ÷ Revenues
= 100 × ÷
=
3 Asset turnover = Revenues ÷ Total assets
= ÷
=
4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total Disney Shareholder’s equity
= ÷
=
5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= × × ×
=
FCFE growth rate (g) forecast
Walt Disney Co., H-model
| Year | Value | gt |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | g1 | |
| 2 | g2 | |
| 3 | g3 | |
| 4 | g4 | |
| 5 and thereafter | g5 |
where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5
Calculations
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=
g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=
g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=