Stock Analysis on Net

Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS)

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

Microsoft Excel

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is generally described as cash flows after direct costs and before any payments to capital suppliers.


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Walt Disney Co., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

Microsoft Excel
Year Value FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 19.90%
01 FCFF0 11,951
1 FCFF1 12,129 = 11,951 × (1 + 1.49%) 10,116
2 FCFF2 12,677 = 12,129 × (1 + 4.52%) 8,818
3 FCFF3 13,634 = 12,677 × (1 + 7.55%) 7,910
4 FCFF4 15,076 = 13,634 × (1 + 10.58%) 7,295
5 FCFF5 17,128 = 15,076 × (1 + 13.61%) 6,912
5 Terminal value (TV5) 309,330 = 17,128 × (1 + 13.61%) ÷ (19.90%13.61%) 124,837
Intrinsic value of Walt Disney Co. capital 165,888
Less: Borrowings and finance lease liabilities (fair value) 39,249
Intrinsic value of Walt Disney Co. common stock 126,639
 
Intrinsic value of Walt Disney Co. common stock (per share) $72.93
Current share price $101.69

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-09-27).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.



Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Walt Disney Co., cost of capital

Microsoft Excel
Value1 Weight Required rate of return2 Calculation
Equity (fair value) 176,586 0.82 23.58%
Borrowings and finance lease liabilities (fair value) 39,249 0.18 3.32% = 4.45% × (1 – 25.48%)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-09-27).

1 US$ in millions

   Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= 1,736,511,424 × $101.69
= $176,585,846,706.56

   Borrowings and finance lease liabilities (fair value). See details »

2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt is after tax.

   Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= (21.00% + 23.70% + 28.90% + 32.80% + 1.00% + 21.00%) ÷ 6
= 25.48%

WACC = 19.90%



FCFF Growth Rate (g)

FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Walt Disney Co., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Sep 27, 2025 Sep 28, 2024 Sep 30, 2023 Oct 1, 2022 Oct 2, 2021 Oct 3, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Interest expense 1,812 2,070 1,973 1,549 1,546 1,647
Loss from discontinued operations, net of income tax (48) (29) (32)
Net income (loss) attributable to The Walt Disney Company (Disney) 12,404 4,972 2,354 3,145 1,995 (2,864)
 
Effective income tax rate (EITR)1 21.00% 23.70% 28.90% 32.80% 1.00% 21.00%
 
Interest expense, after tax2 1,431 1,579 1,403 1,041 1,531 1,301
Add: Dividends 1,803 1,366 1,587
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends 3,234 2,945 1,403 1,041 1,531 2,888
 
EBIT(1 – EITR)3 13,835 6,551 3,757 4,234 3,555 (1,531)
 
Short-term finance lease liabilities 21 30 37 37 41 37
Current portion of borrowings 6,711 6,845 4,330 3,070 5,866 5,711
Borrowings, excluding current portion 35,315 38,970 42,101 45,299 48,540 52,917
Long-term finance lease liabilities 141 160 206 219 246 271
Total Disney Shareholder’s equity 109,869 100,696 99,277 95,008 88,553 83,583
Total capital 152,057 146,701 145,951 143,633 143,246 142,519
Financial Ratios
Retention rate (RR)4 0.77 0.55 0.63 0.75 0.57
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5 9.10% 4.47% 2.57% 2.95% 2.48% -1.07%
Averages
RR 0.65
ROIC 2.28%
 
FCFF growth rate (g)6 1.49%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-09-27), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-10-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-10-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-10-03).

1 See details »

2025 Calculations

2 Interest expense, after tax = Interest expense × (1 – EITR)
= 1,812 × (1 – 21.00%)
= 1,431

3 EBIT(1 – EITR) = Net income (loss) attributable to The Walt Disney Company (Disney) – Loss from discontinued operations, net of income tax + Interest expense, after tax
= 12,4040 + 1,431
= 13,835

4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [13,8353,234] ÷ 13,835
= 0.77

5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × 13,835 ÷ 152,057
= 9.10%

6 g = RR × ROIC
= 0.65 × 2.28%
= 1.49%


FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × (215,835 × 19.90%11,951) ÷ (215,835 + 11,951)
= 13.61%

where:

Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of Walt Disney Co. debt and equity (US$ in millions)
FCFF0 = the last year Walt Disney Co. free cash flow to the firm (US$ in millions)
WACC = weighted average cost of Walt Disney Co. capital


FCFF growth rate (g) forecast

Walt Disney Co., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1 1.49%
2 g2 4.52%
3 g3 7.55%
4 g4 10.58%
5 and thereafter g5 13.61%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpolation between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 1.49% + (13.61%1.49%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 4.52%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 1.49% + (13.61%1.49%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 7.55%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 1.49% + (13.61%1.49%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 10.58%