Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.66% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 5, 2025 was $10.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.97% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of F price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2021
End date: May 5, 2025
a = 2.7608
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1235
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1235) – 1
= 63.90%
October 7, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y359)
= Exp(a + b × X359 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 519 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7608 + -0.0003 × 519 + 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(2.8634)
= $17.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y359)
= Exp(a + b × X359 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 519 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7608 + -0.0003 × 519 – 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(2.3693)
= $10.69
May 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7608 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(2.4997)
= $12.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7608 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(2.0056)
= $7.43
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.66% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 5, 2025 was $10.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: May 5, 2025
a = 2.5219
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0904
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0904) – 1
= 43.56%
May 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y505)
= Exp(a + b × X505 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5219 + -0.0001 × 730 + 2 × 0.0904)
= Exp(2.6217)
= $13.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y505)
= Exp(a + b × X505 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5219 + -0.0001 × 730 – 2 × 0.0904)
= Exp(2.2601)
= $9.58
May 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5219 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0904)
= Exp(2.5002)
= $12.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5219 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0904)
= Exp(2.1386)
= $8.49
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.97% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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