Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 218.83% per annum.
- F price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $13.79 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.19 (7.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.03% per annum.
- F price at the close of August 6, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.98 (7.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of F price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 6, 2026
End date: June 16, 2026
a = 1.5722
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0697
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 218.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0697) – 1
= 32.16%
March 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y171)
= Exp(a + b × X171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5722 + 0.0032 × 248 + 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(2.4995)
= $12.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y171)
= Exp(a + b × X171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5722 + 0.0032 × 248 – 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(2.2206)
= $9.21
June 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y241)
= Exp(a + b × X241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 350 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5722 + 0.0032 × 350 + 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(2.8235)
= $16.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y241)
= Exp(a + b × X241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 350 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5722 + 0.0032 × 350 – 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(2.5447)
= $12.74
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 218.83% per annum.
- F price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $13.79 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.19 (7.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2026
End date: July 14, 2026
a = 3.9155
b = -0.0036
s = 0.0370
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0036) – 1
= -73.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0370) – 1
= 15.94%
May 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 325 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9155 + -0.0036 × 325 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(2.8228)
= $16.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 325 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9155 + -0.0036 × 325 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(2.6749)
= $14.51
July 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y259)
= Exp(a + b × X259 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9155 + -0.0036 × 378 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(2.6325)
= $13.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y259)
= Exp(a + b × X259 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9155 + -0.0036 × 378 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(2.4846)
= $12.00
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.03% per annum.
- F price at the close of August 6, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.98 (7.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.