Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.33% per annum.
- F price at the close of September 22, 2026 was $13.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 84.56% per annum.
- F price at the close of September 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of F price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 27, 2026
End date: September 22, 2026
a = 3.0374
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0216
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0216) – 1
= 9.04%
July 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0374 + -0.0010 × 378 + 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(2.7064)
= $14.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0374 + -0.0010 × 378 – 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(2.6199)
= $13.73
September 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0374 + -0.0010 × 435 + 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(2.6500)
= $14.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0374 + -0.0010 × 435 – 2 × 0.0216)
= Exp(2.5634)
= $12.98
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.33% per annum.
- F price at the close of September 22, 2026 was $13.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 3, 2026
End date: September 22, 2026
a = 4.7970
b = -0.0051
s = 0.0157
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0051) – 1
= -84.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0157) – 1
= 6.46%
September 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 416 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7970 + -0.0051 × 416 + 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(2.6991)
= $14.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 416 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7970 + -0.0051 × 416 – 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(2.6365)
= $13.96
September 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7970 + -0.0051 × 435 + 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(2.6019)
= $13.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7970 + -0.0051 × 435 – 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(2.5393)
= $12.67
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 84.56% per annum.
- F price at the close of September 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.