Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.93% per annum.
- F price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $12.53 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.14 (1.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.39% per annum.
- F price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of F price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 27, 2026
End date: October 30, 2026
a = 3.5624
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0300
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0300) – 1
= 12.77%
July 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5624 + -0.0023 × 378 + 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(2.7502)
= $15.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5624 + -0.0023 × 378 – 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(2.6300)
= $13.87
October 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 473 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5624 + -0.0023 × 473 + 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(2.5309)
= $12.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 473 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5624 + -0.0023 × 473 – 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(2.4107)
= $11.14
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.93% per annum.
- F price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $12.53 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.14 (1.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 28, 2026
End date: November 5, 2026
a = 2.4560
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0221
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0221) – 1
= 9.22%
September 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4560 + 0.0001 × 441 + 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(2.5405)
= $12.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4560 + 0.0001 × 441 – 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(2.4523)
= $11.61
November 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y332)
= Exp(a + b × X332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4560 + 0.0001 × 479 + 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(2.5440)
= $12.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y332)
= Exp(a + b × X332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4560 + 0.0001 × 479 – 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(2.4557)
= $11.66
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.39% per annum.
- F price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.