Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.24% per annum.
- GM price at the close of November 13, 2026 was $86.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.59% per annum.
- GM price at the close of November 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 10, 2023
End date: November 13, 2026
a = 2.8546
b = 0.0009
s = 0.1016
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1016) – 1
= 50.15%
August 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y435)
= Exp(a + b × X435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 633 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8546 + 0.0009 × 633 + 2 × 0.1016)
= Exp(3.6320)
= $37.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y435)
= Exp(a + b × X435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 633 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8546 + 0.0009 × 633 – 2 × 0.1016)
= Exp(3.2255)
= $25.17
November 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8546 + 0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1016)
= Exp(4.7122)
= $111.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8546 + 0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1016)
= Exp(4.3057)
= $74.12
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.24% per annum.
- GM price at the close of November 13, 2026 was $86.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 3, 2025
End date: November 13, 2026
a = 4.0157
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0508
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0508) – 1
= 22.51%
December 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,016)
= Exp(a + b × X1,016 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0157 + 0.0002 × 1,479 + 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(4.4512)
= $85.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,016)
= Exp(a + b × X1,016 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0157 + 0.0002 × 1,479 – 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(4.2482)
= $69.98
November 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0157 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(4.5291)
= $92.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0157 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(4.3261)
= $75.65
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.59% per annum.
- GM price at the close of November 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.