Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.30% per annum.
- GM price at the close of July 2, 2026 was $76.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.45% per annum.
- GM price at the close of July 2, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.56 (2.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 9, 2025
End date: May 22, 2026
a = 4.5407
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0350
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0350) – 1
= 15.04%
December 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y150)
= Exp(a + b × X150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5407 + -0.0006 × 217 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.4833)
= $88.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y150)
= Exp(a + b × X150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5407 + -0.0006 × 217 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.3432)
= $76.96
May 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 381 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5407 + -0.0006 × 381 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.3870)
= $80.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 381 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5407 + -0.0006 × 381 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.2469)
= $69.89
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.30% per annum.
- GM price at the close of July 2, 2026 was $76.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 5, 2026
End date: June 24, 2026
a = 4.0015
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0297
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0297) – 1
= 12.63%
March 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y208)
= Exp(a + b × X208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0015 + 0.0010 × 303 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.3547)
= $77.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y208)
= Exp(a + b × X208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0015 + 0.0010 × 303 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.2357)
= $69.11
June 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0015 + 0.0010 × 414 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.4623)
= $86.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0015 + 0.0010 × 414 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.3433)
= $76.96
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.45% per annum.
- GM price at the close of July 2, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.56 (2.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.