Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.98% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of April 24, 2024 was $162.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.34% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of April 24, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TSLA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 3, 2020
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 5.7314
b = -0.0002
s = 0.2202
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2202) – 1
= 141.26%
December 3, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y407)
= Exp(a + b × X407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 588 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7314 + -0.0002 × 588 + 2 × 0.2202)
= Exp(6.0379)
= $419.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y407)
= Exp(a + b × X407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 588 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7314 + -0.0002 × 588 – 2 × 0.2202)
= Exp(5.1572)
= $173.67
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7314 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2202)
= Exp(5.7560)
= $316.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7314 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2202)
= Exp(4.8753)
= $131.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.98% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of April 24, 2024 was $162.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 28, 2023
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 11.2908
b = -0.0034
s = 0.0574
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0034) – 1
= -71.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0574) – 1
= 25.80%
November 28, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2908 + -0.0034 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(5.6609)
= $287.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2908 + -0.0034 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(5.4314)
= $228.48
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2908 + -0.0034 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(5.1542)
= $173.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2908 + -0.0034 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.9248)
= $137.66
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.34% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of April 24, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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