Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.01% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $382.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.08% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TSLA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 8, 2022
End date: July 22, 2026
a = 4.8000
b = 0.0007
s = 0.1943
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 31.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1943) – 1
= 117.56%
November 8, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8000 + 0.0007 × 393 + 2 × 0.1943)
= Exp(5.4795)
= $239.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8000 + 0.0007 × 393 – 2 × 0.1943)
= Exp(4.7022)
= $110.19
July 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8000 + 0.0007 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.1943)
= Exp(6.4798)
= $651.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8000 + 0.0007 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.1943)
= Exp(5.7025)
= $299.62
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.01% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $382.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2025
End date: October 9, 2026
a = 7.0515
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0690
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -21.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0690) – 1
= 31.77%
September 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y986)
= Exp(a + b × X986 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0515 + -0.0006 × 1,436 + 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(6.2581)
= $522.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y986)
= Exp(a + b × X986 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0515 + -0.0006 × 1,436 – 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(5.9822)
= $396.30
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0515 + -0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(6.0064)
= $406.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0515 + -0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(5.7305)
= $308.13
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.08% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.