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Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
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Tesla Inc. pages available for free this week:
- Common-Size Income Statement
- Common-Size Balance Sheet: Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity
- Analysis of Long-term (Investment) Activity Ratios
- Analysis of Geographic Areas
- Enterprise Value (EV)
- Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)
- Enterprise Value to FCFF (EV/FCFF)
- Price to FCFE (P/FCFE)
- Price to Earnings (P/E) since 2010
- Analysis of Debt
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Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.92% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of June 8, 2023 was $234.86 and was higher than the top border of the primary trend channel by $21.01 (9.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11,015.93% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of June 8, 2023 was inside the secondary trend channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of trend channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of trend channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TSLA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Trend channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
October 18, 2021 calculations
Top border of trend channeld:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of trend channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
May 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of trend channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of trend channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Secondary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Trend channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
May 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of trend channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of trend channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
June 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of trend channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of trend channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $