Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.54% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 16, 2025 was $10.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 399.94% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of F price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2021
End date: May 14, 2025
a = 2.7400
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1234
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1234) – 1
= 63.81%
October 7, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y351)
= Exp(a + b × X351 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 507 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7400 + -0.0003 × 507 + 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(2.8474)
= $17.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y351)
= Exp(a + b × X351 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 507 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7400 + -0.0003 × 507 – 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(2.3539)
= $10.53
May 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7400 + -0.0003 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(2.4860)
= $12.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7400 + -0.0003 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(1.9925)
= $7.33
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.54% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 16, 2025 was $10.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2025
End date: May 16, 2025
a = -5.6721
b = 0.0044
s = 0.0131
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0044) – 1
= 399.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0131) – 1
= 5.38%
April 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6721 + 0.0044 × 1,788 + 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(2.2376)
= $9.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6721 + 0.0044 × 1,788 – 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(2.1852)
= $8.89
May 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6721 + 0.0044 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(2.3963)
= $10.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6721 + 0.0044 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(2.3439)
= $10.42
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 399.94% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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