Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.57% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 13, 2025 was $10.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.92% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of F price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2021
End date: May 13, 2025
a = 2.7417
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1234
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1234) – 1
= 63.81%
October 7, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y353)
= Exp(a + b × X353 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 511 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7417 + -0.0003 × 511 + 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(2.8477)
= $17.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y353)
= Exp(a + b × X353 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 511 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7417 + -0.0003 × 511 – 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(2.3542)
= $10.53
May 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7417 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(2.4857)
= $12.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7417 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1234)
= Exp(1.9922)
= $7.33
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.57% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 13, 2025 was $10.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: May 13, 2025
a = 2.5054
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0901
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0901) – 1
= 43.39%
May 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y499)
= Exp(a + b × X499 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5054 + -0.0001 × 722 + 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(2.6065)
= $13.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y499)
= Exp(a + b × X499 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5054 + -0.0001 × 722 – 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(2.2461)
= $9.45
May 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5054 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(2.4856)
= $12.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5054 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(2.1252)
= $8.37
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.92% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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