Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.26% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of May 13, 2025 was $188.20 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.45 (2.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,121.96% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of May 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TXN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 20, 2024
End date: May 9, 2025
a = 6.7664
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0539
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0539) – 1
= 24.05%
August 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7664 + -0.0009 × 1,559 + 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(5.4556)
= $234.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7664 + -0.0009 × 1,559 – 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(5.2401)
= $188.68
May 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7664 + -0.0009 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(5.2172)
= $184.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7664 + -0.0009 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(5.0016)
= $148.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.26% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of May 13, 2025 was $188.20 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.45 (2.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2025
End date: May 13, 2025
a = -7.3412
b = 0.0069
s = 0.0352
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0069) – 1
= 1,121.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0352) – 1
= 15.11%
April 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3412 + 0.0069 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(5.0249)
= $152.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3412 + 0.0069 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.8842)
= $132.19
May 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3412 + 0.0069 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(5.2444)
= $189.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3412 + 0.0069 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(5.1037)
= $164.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,121.96% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of May 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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