Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.62% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of October 30, 2026 was $104.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 76.59% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of October 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 14, 2026
End date: October 30, 2026
a = 4.9484
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0338
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0338) – 1
= 14.46%
May 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y175)
= Exp(a + b × X175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9484 + -0.0006 × 253 + 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(4.8558)
= $128.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y175)
= Exp(a + b × X175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9484 + -0.0006 × 253 – 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(4.7207)
= $112.25
October 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9484 + -0.0006 × 422 + 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(4.7489)
= $115.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9484 + -0.0006 × 422 – 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(4.6138)
= $100.86
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.62% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of October 30, 2026 was $104.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 6, 2026
End date: October 30, 2026
a = 6.3395
b = -0.0040
s = 0.0274
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0040) – 1
= -76.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0274) – 1
= 11.58%
October 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 398 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3395 + -0.0040 × 398 + 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(4.8108)
= $122.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 398 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3395 + -0.0040 × 398 – 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(4.7013)
= $110.09
October 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3395 + -0.0040 × 422 + 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(4.7154)
= $111.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3395 + -0.0040 × 422 – 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(4.6058)
= $100.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 76.59% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of October 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.