Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.97% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of March 5, 2026 was $139.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.52% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of March 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ANET price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 6, 2025
End date: March 5, 2026
a = 5.5743
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0633
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0633) – 1
= 28.84%
August 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,612 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5743 + -0.0004 × 1,612 + 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(5.0873)
= $161.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,612 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5743 + -0.0004 × 1,612 – 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(4.8339)
= $125.70
March 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5743 + -0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(5.0070)
= $149.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5743 + -0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(4.7536)
= $116.00
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.97% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of March 5, 2026 was $139.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 17, 2025
End date: March 5, 2026
a = 3.3355
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0431
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0431) – 1
= 18.81%
November 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3355 + 0.0009 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(4.9186)
= $136.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3355 + 0.0009 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(4.7462)
= $115.15
March 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3355 + 0.0009 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(5.0129)
= $150.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3355 + 0.0009 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(4.8405)
= $126.53
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.52% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of March 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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