Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.26% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of July 27, 2026 was $170.76 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $59.29 (25.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.50% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of July 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ANET price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: February 18, 2025
a = 2.6548
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0814
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 80.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0814) – 1
= 38.46%
May 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y197)
= Exp(a + b × X197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6548 + 0.0016 × 285 + 2 × 0.0814)
= Exp(3.2776)
= $26.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y197)
= Exp(a + b × X197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6548 + 0.0016 × 285 – 2 × 0.0814)
= Exp(2.9522)
= $19.15
February 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y893)
= Exp(a + b × X893 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6548 + 0.0016 × 1,301 + 2 × 0.0814)
= Exp(4.9178)
= $136.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y893)
= Exp(a + b × X893 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6548 + 0.0016 × 1,301 – 2 × 0.0814)
= Exp(4.5924)
= $98.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.26% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of July 27, 2026 was $170.76 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $59.29 (25.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 8, 2023
End date: July 27, 2026
a = 3.3107
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1302
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1302) – 1
= 68.34%
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y596)
= Exp(a + b × X596 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 863 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3107 + 0.0010 × 863 + 2 × 0.1302)
= Exp(4.4251)
= $83.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y596)
= Exp(a + b × X596 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 863 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3107 + 0.0010 × 863 – 2 × 0.1302)
= Exp(3.9042)
= $49.61
July 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3107 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1302)
= Exp(5.3769)
= $216.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3107 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1302)
= Exp(4.8561)
= $128.52
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.50% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of July 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.