Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 123.82% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of April 16, 2024 was $262.76 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.58 (4.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.59% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of April 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ANET price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: April 11, 2024
a = 1.6832
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0479
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 123.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0479) – 1
= 21.11%
May 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,476 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6832 + 0.0022 × 1,476 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(5.0369)
= $154.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,476 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6832 + 0.0022 × 1,476 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(4.8454)
= $127.16
April 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6832 + 0.0022 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(5.7984)
= $329.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6832 + 0.0022 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(5.6070)
= $272.32
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 123.82% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of April 16, 2024 was $262.76 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.58 (4.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 20, 2024
End date: April 16, 2024
a = 12.4783
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0328
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -74.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0328) – 1
= 14.01%
March 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.4783 + -0.0038 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(5.7906)
= $327.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.4783 + -0.0038 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(5.6594)
= $286.98
April 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.4783 + -0.0038 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(5.6892)
= $295.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.4783 + -0.0038 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(5.5581)
= $259.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.59% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of April 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out ANET and 1,499 other stocks on our new website