Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.26% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $188.67 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $45.50 (19.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 60.29% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ANET price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: February 18, 2025
a = 2.6742
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0814
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 80.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0814) – 1
= 38.46%
May 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y189)
= Exp(a + b × X189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6742 + 0.0016 × 273 + 2 × 0.0814)
= Exp(3.2776)
= $26.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y189)
= Exp(a + b × X189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6742 + 0.0016 × 273 – 2 × 0.0814)
= Exp(2.9522)
= $19.15
February 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y885)
= Exp(a + b × X885 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6742 + 0.0016 × 1,289 + 2 × 0.0814)
= Exp(4.9178)
= $136.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y885)
= Exp(a + b × X885 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6742 + 0.0016 × 1,289 – 2 × 0.0814)
= Exp(4.5924)
= $98.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.26% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $188.67 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $45.50 (19.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: August 7, 2026
a = 2.8877
b = 0.0013
s = 0.1362
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1362) – 1
= 72.44%
May 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y189)
= Exp(a + b × X189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8877 + 0.0013 × 273 + 2 × 0.1362)
= Exp(3.5131)
= $33.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y189)
= Exp(a + b × X189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8877 + 0.0013 × 273 – 2 × 0.1362)
= Exp(2.9682)
= $19.46
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8877 + 0.0013 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1362)
= Exp(5.5181)
= $249.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8877 + 0.0013 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1362)
= Exp(4.9732)
= $144.48
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 60.29% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.