## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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- Income Statement
- Balance Sheet: Assets
- Analysis of Profitability Ratios
- Analysis of Solvency Ratios
- Analysis of Long-term (Investment) Activity Ratios
- Analysis of Geographic Areas
- Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)
- Total Asset Turnover since 2014
- Price to Sales (P/S) since 2014
- Aggregate Accruals

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### Summary

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 121.46% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $287.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 181.18% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of ANET price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date:

End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × ) – 1

=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × ) – 1

=

#### May 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 121.46% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $287.74 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date:

End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × ) – 1

=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × ) – 1

=

#### September 20, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 181.18% per annum.
- ANET price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.

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