Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 86.27% per annum.
- DELL price at the close of November 3, 2026 was $408.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.33% per annum.
- DELL price at the close of November 3, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DELL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 11, 2026
End date: November 3, 2026
a = 8.3199
b = -0.0054
s = 0.0702
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0054) – 1
= -86.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0702) – 1
= 32.42%
September 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 354 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3199 + -0.0054 × 354 + 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(6.5343)
= $688.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 354 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3199 + -0.0054 × 354 – 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(6.2534)
= $519.80
November 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3199 + -0.0054 × 407 + 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(6.2459)
= $515.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3199 + -0.0054 × 407 – 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(5.9651)
= $389.58
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 86.27% per annum.
- DELL price at the close of November 3, 2026 was $408.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 5, 2026
End date: November 3, 2026
a = 10.5946
b = -0.0112
s = 0.0673
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0112) – 1
= -98.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0673) – 1
= 30.87%
October 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5946 + -0.0112 × 378 + 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(6.4909)
= $659.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5946 + -0.0112 × 378 – 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(6.2219)
= $503.66
November 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5946 + -0.0112 × 407 + 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(6.1658)
= $476.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5946 + -0.0112 × 407 – 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(5.8968)
= $363.86
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.33% per annum.
- DELL price at the close of November 3, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.