Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 358.67% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $858.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.35% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of April 30, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 25, 2022
End date: April 30, 2024
a = -1.0268
b = 0.0042
s = 0.2635
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 358.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2635) – 1
= 186.96%
March 25, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y732)
= Exp(a + b × X732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0268 + 0.0042 × 1,059 + 2 × 0.2635)
= Exp(3.9195)
= $50.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y732)
= Exp(a + b × X732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0268 + 0.0042 × 1,059 – 2 × 0.2635)
= Exp(2.8654)
= $17.56
April 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0268 + 0.0042 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2635)
= Exp(7.1203)
= $1,236.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0268 + 0.0042 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2635)
= Exp(6.0661)
= $431.01
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 358.67% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $858.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2024
End date: April 30, 2024
a = 17.8936
b = -0.0061
s = 0.0740
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0061) – 1
= -89.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0740) – 1
= 34.47%
March 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.8936 + -0.0061 × 1,769 + 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(7.1877)
= $1,323.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.8936 + -0.0061 × 1,769 – 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(6.8915)
= $983.87
April 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.8936 + -0.0061 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(6.8379)
= $932.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.8936 + -0.0061 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(6.5418)
= $693.50
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.35% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of April 30, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out SMCI and 1,499 other stocks on our new website