Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.19% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of September 24, 2026 was $41.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 786.04% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of September 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 29, 2024
End date: September 16, 2026
a = 5.1395
b = -0.0010
s = 0.2805
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2805) – 1
= 207.05%
January 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y587)
= Exp(a + b × X587 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 854 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1395 + -0.0010 × 854 + 2 × 0.2805)
= Exp(4.8258)
= $124.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y587)
= Exp(a + b × X587 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 854 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1395 + -0.0010 × 854 – 2 × 0.2805)
= Exp(3.7039)
= $40.61
September 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1395 + -0.0010 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.2805)
= Exp(3.8414)
= $46.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1395 + -0.0010 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.2805)
= Exp(2.7196)
= $15.17
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.19% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of September 24, 2026 was $41.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 1, 2026
End date: September 24, 2026
a = -7.1476
b = 0.0060
s = 0.0773
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0060) – 1
= 786.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0773) – 1
= 36.23%
July 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1476 + 0.0060 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(3.3950)
= $29.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1476 + 0.0060 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(3.0858)
= $21.89
September 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1476 + 0.0060 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(3.9030)
= $49.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1476 + 0.0060 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(3.5939)
= $36.37
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 786.04% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of September 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.