Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.26% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of November 9, 2026 was $28.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.23% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of November 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 24, 2024
End date: November 9, 2026
a = 4.9614
b = -0.0009
s = 0.2845
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2845) – 1
= 212.00%
January 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y552)
= Exp(a + b × X552 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9614 + -0.0009 × 805 + 2 × 0.2845)
= Exp(4.7978)
= $121.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y552)
= Exp(a + b × X552 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9614 + -0.0009 × 805 – 2 × 0.2845)
= Exp(3.6599)
= $38.86
November 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9614 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.2845)
= Exp(3.8696)
= $47.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9614 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.2845)
= Exp(2.7318)
= $15.36
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.26% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of November 9, 2026 was $28.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 28, 2024
End date: November 9, 2026
a = 3.9748
b = -0.0003
s = 0.2189
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2189) – 1
= 140.07%
August 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y702)
= Exp(a + b × X702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,022 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9748 + -0.0003 × 1,022 + 2 × 0.2189)
= Exp(4.1416)
= $62.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y702)
= Exp(a + b × X702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,022 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9748 + -0.0003 × 1,022 – 2 × 0.2189)
= Exp(3.2659)
= $26.20
November 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9748 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.2189)
= Exp(3.9287)
= $50.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9748 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.2189)
= Exp(3.0529)
= $21.18
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.23% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of November 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.