Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Paying user area
Try for free
Super Micro Computer Inc. pages available for free this week:
- Balance Sheet: Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity
- Analysis of Short-term (Operating) Activity Ratios
- Analysis of Long-term (Investment) Activity Ratios
- DuPont Analysis: Disaggregation of ROE, ROA, and Net Profit Margin
- Analysis of Geographic Areas
- Enterprise Value (EV)
- Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
- Return on Assets (ROA) since 2007
- Total Asset Turnover since 2007
- Analysis of Debt
The data is hidden behind: . Unhide it.
Get full access to the entire website from $10.42/mo, or
get 1-month access to Super Micro Computer Inc. for $24.99.
This is a one-time payment. There is no automatic renewal.
We accept:
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 76.84% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $36.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.73 (22.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 82.05% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
February 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
February 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 76.84% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $36.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.73 (22.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 82.05% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out SMCI and 1,499 other stocks on our new website