Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.35% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of August 11, 2026 was $31.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.49% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of August 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 29, 2024
End date: August 11, 2026
a = 5.2927
b = -0.0011
s = 0.2769
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2769) – 1
= 202.68%
January 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 900 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2927 + -0.0011 × 900 + 2 × 0.2769)
= Exp(4.8459)
= $127.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 900 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2927 + -0.0011 × 900 – 2 × 0.2769)
= Exp(3.7384)
= $42.03
August 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2927 + -0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.2769)
= Exp(3.8176)
= $45.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2927 + -0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.2769)
= Exp(2.7101)
= $15.03
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.35% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of August 11, 2026 was $31.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 28, 2024
End date: August 11, 2026
a = 4.1780
b = -0.0004
s = 0.2237
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2237) – 1
= 144.64%
August 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y765)
= Exp(a + b × X765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1780 + -0.0004 × 1,112 + 2 × 0.2237)
= Exp(4.1837)
= $65.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y765)
= Exp(a + b × X765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1780 + -0.0004 × 1,112 – 2 × 0.2237)
= Exp(3.2891)
= $26.82
August 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1780 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.2237)
= Exp(3.9006)
= $49.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1780 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.2237)
= Exp(3.0060)
= $20.21
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.49% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of August 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.