Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 99.26% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of November 3, 2026 was $331.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $33.57 (9.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.69% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of November 3, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2026
End date: July 30, 2026
a = 5.0712
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0383
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 99.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0383) – 1
= 16.57%
March 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y160)
= Exp(a + b × X160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0712 + 0.0019 × 234 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.5898)
= $267.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y160)
= Exp(a + b × X160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0712 + 0.0019 × 234 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.4365)
= $229.65
July 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y264)
= Exp(a + b × X264 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 384 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0712 + 0.0019 × 384 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.8732)
= $355.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y264)
= Exp(a + b × X264 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 384 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0712 + 0.0019 × 384 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.7199)
= $304.86
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 99.26% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of November 3, 2026 was $331.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $33.57 (9.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2026
End date: November 3, 2026
a = 5.4100
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0331
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0331) – 1
= 14.15%
May 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y205)
= Exp(a + b × X205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 298 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4100 + 0.0009 × 298 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(5.7432)
= $312.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y205)
= Exp(a + b × X205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 298 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4100 + 0.0009 × 298 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(5.6109)
= $273.39
November 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y331)
= Exp(a + b × X331 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 480 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4100 + 0.0009 × 480 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(5.9063)
= $367.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y331)
= Exp(a + b × X331 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 480 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4100 + 0.0009 × 480 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(5.7740)
= $321.83
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.69% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of November 3, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.