Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1,116.39% per annum.
- LITE price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $824.13 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $994.16 (54.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 48.35% per annum.
- LITE price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LITE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 21, 2025
End date: June 22, 2026
a = -4.6353
b = 0.0068
s = 0.1723
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0068) – 1
= 1,116.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1723) – 1
= 99.22%
February 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.6353 + 0.0068 × 1,222 + 2 × 0.1723)
= Exp(4.0741)
= $58.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.6353 + 0.0068 × 1,222 – 2 × 0.1723)
= Exp(3.3849)
= $29.51
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.6353 + 0.0068 × 1,708 + 2 × 0.1723)
= Exp(7.4008)
= $1,637.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.6353 + 0.0068 × 1,708 – 2 × 0.1723)
= Exp(6.7116)
= $821.90
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1,116.39% per annum.
- LITE price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $824.13 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $994.16 (54.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 19, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 4.8901
b = 0.0011
s = 0.1171
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1171) – 1
= 59.75%
February 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8901 + 0.0011 × 1,585 + 2 × 0.1171)
= Exp(6.8369)
= $931.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8901 + 0.0011 × 1,585 – 2 × 0.1171)
= Exp(6.3685)
= $583.17
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8901 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1171)
= Exp(7.0952)
= $1,206.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8901 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1171)
= Exp(6.6267)
= $755.00
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 48.35% per annum.
- LITE price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.