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Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)


Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Intermediate level

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Dividends are the cleanest and most straightforward measure of cash flow because these are clearly cash flows that go directly to the investor.


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Cisco Systems Inc., dividends per share (DPS) forecast

US$

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value DPSt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at hidden
0 DPS01 hidden
1 DPS1 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
2 DPS2 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
3 DPS3 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
4 DPS4 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
5 DPS5 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
5 Terminal value (TV5) hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) ÷ (hiddenhidden) hidden
Intrinsic value of Cisco Systems Inc.’s common stock (per share) $hidden
Current share price $hidden

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2019-09-05).

1 DPS0 = Sum of the last year dividends per share of Cisco Systems Inc.’s common stock. See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Required Rate of Return (r)

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF hidden
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) hidden
Systematic risk of Cisco Systems Inc.’s common stock βCSCO hidden
 
Required rate of return on Cisco Systems Inc.’s common stock3 rCSCO hidden

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rCSCO = RF + βCSCO [E(RM) – RF]
= hidden + hidden [hiddenhidden]
= hidden


Dividend Growth Rate (g)

Dividend growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Cisco Systems Inc., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Average Jul 27, 2019 Jul 28, 2018 Jul 29, 2017 Jul 30, 2016 Jul 25, 2015 Jul 26, 2014
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Cash dividends declared hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Net income hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Revenue hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Total assets hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Total Cisco shareholders’ equity hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Profit margin2 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Asset turnover3 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Financial leverage4 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Averages
Retention rate hidden
Profit margin hidden
Asset turnover hidden
Financial leverage hidden
 
Dividend growth rate (g)5 hidden

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2019-09-05), 10-K (filing date: 2018-09-06), 10-K (filing date: 2017-09-07), 10-K (filing date: 2016-09-08), 10-K (filing date: 2015-09-08), 10-K (filing date: 2014-09-09).

2019 Calculations

1 Retention rate = (Net income – Cash dividends declared) ÷ Net income
= (hiddenhidden) ÷ hidden = hidden

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income ÷ Revenue
= 100 × hidden ÷ hidden = hidden

3 Asset turnover = Revenue ÷ Total assets
= hidden ÷ hidden = hidden

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total Cisco shareholders’ equity
= hidden ÷ hidden = hidden

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= hidden × hidden × hidden × hidden = hidden


Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model

g = 100 × (P0 × rD0) ÷ (P0 + D0)
= 100 × ($hidden × hidden – $hidden) ÷ ($hidden + $hidden) = hidden

where:
P0 = current price of share of Cisco Systems Inc.’s common stock
D0 = the last year dividends per share of Cisco Systems Inc.’s common stock
r = required rate of return on Cisco Systems Inc.’s common stock


Dividend growth rate (g) forecast

Cisco Systems Inc., H-model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value gt
1 g1 hidden
2 g2 hidden
3 g3 hidden
4 g4 hidden
5 and thereafter g5 hidden

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by Gordon growth model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden + (hiddenhidden) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden + (hiddenhidden) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden + (hiddenhidden) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden