Calculation
| P/OP | = | Share price1, 2, 3 | ÷ | Operating profit per share1 | Operating profit per share1 | = | Operating income (loss)1 (in millions) |
÷ | No. shares of common stock outstanding2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3.19 | = | 14.79 | ÷ | 4.63 | 4.63 | = | 3,034 | ÷ | 654,756,816 | |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 6.31 | = | 15.56 | ÷ | 2.47 | 2.47 | = | 1,607 | ÷ | 651,430,518 | |
| Feb 22, 2022 | — | = | 17.43 | ÷ | -1.63 | -1.63 | = | -1,059 | ÷ | 649,160,117 | |
| Feb 17, 2021 | — | = | 17.99 | ÷ | -16.29 | -16.29 | = | -10,421 | ÷ | 639,675,800 | |
| Feb 19, 2020 | 3.94 | = | 28.33 | ÷ | 7.19 | 7.19 | = | 3,065 | ÷ | 426,058,744 | |
| Feb 25, 2019 | 6.07 | = | 35.90 | ÷ | 5.91 | 5.91 | = | 2,656 | ÷ | 449,055,548 | |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 6.15 | = | 52.78 | ÷ | 8.58 | 8.58 | = | 4,058 | ÷ | 473,138,683 | |
| Feb 22, 2017 | 4.42 | = | 46.32 | ÷ | 10.48 | 10.48 | = | 5,284 | ÷ | 504,154,397 | |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 3.95 | = | 40.66 | ÷ | 10.29 | 10.29 | = | 6,204 | ÷ | 603,018,015 | |
| Feb 25, 2015 | 8.15 | = | 49.73 | ÷ | 6.10 | 6.10 | = | 4,249 | ÷ | 696,649,850 | |
| Feb 28, 2014 | 13.91 | = | 36.93 | ÷ | 2.66 | 2.66 | = | 1,399 | ÷ | 526,805,522 |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2014-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2013-12-31).
1 US$
2 Data adjusted for splits and stock dividends.
3 Closing price as at the filing date of American Airlines Group Inc. Annual Report.
The financial trajectory from 2014 to 2024 reflects a significant divergence between market valuation and operational profitability. While the share price has experienced a long-term decline, operating profit per share has demonstrated extreme volatility, characterized by a period of growth, a severe contraction, and a subsequent recovery.
- Share Price Evolution
- A peak in valuation was reached in February 2018 at 52.78 US$. Since that period, a consistent downward trend is observed, with the share price declining to 14.79 US$ by February 2024. This represents a substantial reduction in market capitalization over the six-year period following the peak.
- Operating Profitability Trends
- Operating profit per share grew steadily from 2.66 US$ in 2014 to a peak of 10.48 US$ in 2017. After a period of relative stability, a catastrophic collapse occurred in February 2021, with profit per share dropping to -16.29 US$. A recovery phase followed, with profitability returning to positive territory in 2023 and reaching 4.63 US$ by February 2024.
- Price to Operating Profit (P/OP) Analysis
- The P/OP ratio began at a high of 13.91 in 2014, indicating a high premium relative to operating earnings. Between 2015 and 2020, the ratio generally compressed, fluctuating between 3.94 and 8.15. The ratio became undefined during 2021 and 2022 due to negative operating profits. Upon the return to profitability, the ratio stood at 6.31 in 2023 before falling to 3.19 in 2024.
- Valuation Insight
- The current P/OP ratio of 3.19 is among the lowest recorded in the analyzed period. This suggests that the market is currently pricing the shares at a significant discount relative to their operating profitability compared to historical norms, reflecting either a lack of investor confidence in future earnings sustainability or a fundamental undervaluation of operational performance.
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Comparison to Competitors
| American Airlines Group Inc. | FedEx Corp. | Uber Technologies Inc. | Union Pacific Corp. | United Airlines Holdings Inc. | United Parcel Service Inc. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3.19 | 13.03 | 152.26 | 16.75 | 3.54 | 13.86 |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 6.31 | 9.07 | — | 12.68 | 6.86 | 11.70 |
| Feb 22, 2022 | — | 13.46 | — | 16.53 | — | 14.20 |
| Feb 17, 2021 | — | 17.79 | — | 17.46 | — | 18.23 |
| Feb 19, 2020 | 3.94 | 9.92 | — | 14.83 | 4.07 | 11.72 |
| Feb 25, 2019 | 6.07 | 12.57 | — | 13.73 | 7.11 | 13.69 |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 6.15 | 11.48 | — | 12.30 | 5.43 | 11.98 |
| Feb 22, 2017 | 4.42 | 13.87 | — | 12.14 | 5.41 | 17.14 |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 3.95 | 25.90 | — | 7.89 | 3.61 | 11.27 |
| Feb 25, 2015 | 8.15 | 12.51 | — | 12.26 | 11.01 | 18.48 |
| Feb 28, 2014 | 13.91 | 12.87 | — | 10.81 | 13.59 | 12.57 |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2014-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2013-12-31).